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All Journal Jurnal Profesi Kependidikan Teknik Mesin "TEKNOLOGI" Communications in Science and Technology JURTEKSI Gorontalo Law Review Justisia Ekonomika SULTANIST: Jurnal Manajemen dan Keuangan Journal of Tourism and Creativity Otopro Jurnal Sistem Komputer & Kecerdasan Buatan Cassowary DEDIKASI PKM Jurnal Jendela Pendidikan Journal of Tourism Sustainability Kibas Cenderawasih : Jurnal Ilmiah Kebahasaan dan Kesastraan Abimanyu: Journal of Community Engagement AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis Perwira Journal of Science and Engineering (PJSE) Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal Hotspot (jh) Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bhinneka INOVASI: Jurnal Hasil Pengabdian Masyarakat Journal of Vocational Instruction Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Abdi Citra Journal of Multidisciplinary Inquiry in Science, Technology and Educational Research SITEDI SITEDI (Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Digital) Jurnal Ilmu Pemerintahan Jurnal Teknologi Rekayasa Informasi dan Komputer
Kurniawan, Ahmad
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FORECASTING HARVEST RESULTS OF FRESH FRUIT BUNCHES USING THE SES METHOD Kurniawan, Ahmad; Helmiah, Fauriatun; Yuma, Febby Madonna
JURTEKSI (Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi) Vol 10, No 4 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : STMIK Royal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/jurteksi.v10i4.3075

Abstract

Abstract: PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV (Persero) Tinjowan is a state-owned enterprise unit operating in the palm oil plantation industry. In an effort to increase production, the plantation company aims to enhance production efficiency so that palm oil product prices become more competitive by determining harvest yields. The company's harvest yield estimation still uses a traditional approach based on the average bunch weight (BJR), considering the year of planting and the planting area. However, this technique is less effective and efficient. If the company's estimates are incorrect, it can potentially lead to losses or increased production budgets. The purpose of this research is to obtain a comparison of forecast results for the next month with the best alpha accuracy measure using the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The research method used is based on qualitative and quantitative data from interviews and observations of data from December 2022 to November 2023. The forecasting results with an alpha accuracy value of 0.9 using the Single Exponential Smoothing method show a forecast for December 2023 of 13,835.57844 with a percentage error rate (MAPE) of 9.28%, MAD of 1,021,423.6, and MSE of 174,130,366.Keywords: forecasting; palm oil; single exponential smoothing Abstrak: PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV (Persero) Tinjowan sebagai unit usaha BUMN yang beroperasi di industri perkebunan kelapa sawit. Dalam upaya meningkatkan produksi, perusahaan perkebunan, peningkatan efisiensi produksi agar harga produk sawit lebih kompetitif dengan menentukan hasil panen. Pada perkiraan hasil panen perusahaan masih menerapkan pendekatan tradisional berdasarkan berat janjangan rata-rata (BJR) dengan mempertimbangkan tahun tanam dan luas area tanaman. Namun, tehnik ini kurang efektif dan efisien, Apabila perkiraan yang dibuat perusahaan salah berpotensi menyebabkan kerugian atau peningkatan anggaran produksi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mendapatkan perbandingan hasil peramalan pada bulan berikutnya dengan ukuran akurasi alpha terbaik menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah berdasarkan data kualitatif dan kuantitatif dari hasil wawancara dan observasi data bulan desember 2022 - november 2023. Hasil peramalan dari ukuran akurasi nilai alpha 0.9 menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing diperoleh peramalan untuk periode desember 2023 sebesar 13.835578,44 dengan tingkat persentase error MAPE sebesar 9,28%, MAD 1021423.6 dan MSE 174130366.Kata Kunci: kelapa sawit; peramalan; single exponential smoothing
FORECASTING HARVEST RESULTS OF FRESH FRUIT BUNCHES USING THE SES METHOD Kurniawan, Ahmad; Helmiah, Fauriatun; Yuma, Febby Madonna
JURTEKSI (jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi) Vol. 10 No. 4 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM) STMIK Royal Kisaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/jurteksi.v10i4.3075

Abstract

Abstract: PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV (Persero) Tinjowan is a state-owned enterprise unit operating in the palm oil plantation industry. In an effort to increase production, the plantation company aims to enhance production efficiency so that palm oil product prices become more competitive by determining harvest yields. The company's harvest yield estimation still uses a traditional approach based on the average bunch weight (BJR), considering the year of planting and the planting area. However, this technique is less effective and efficient. If the company's estimates are incorrect, it can potentially lead to losses or increased production budgets. The purpose of this research is to obtain a comparison of forecast results for the next month with the best alpha accuracy measure using the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The research method used is based on qualitative and quantitative data from interviews and observations of data from December 2022 to November 2023. The forecasting results with an alpha accuracy value of 0.9 using the Single Exponential Smoothing method show a forecast for December 2023 of 13,835.57844 with a percentage error rate (MAPE) of 9.28%, MAD of 1,021,423.6, and MSE of 174,130,366.Keywords: forecasting; palm oil; single exponential smoothing Abstrak: PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV (Persero) Tinjowan sebagai unit usaha BUMN yang beroperasi di industri perkebunan kelapa sawit. Dalam upaya meningkatkan produksi, perusahaan perkebunan, peningkatan efisiensi produksi agar harga produk sawit lebih kompetitif dengan menentukan hasil panen. Pada perkiraan hasil panen perusahaan masih menerapkan pendekatan tradisional berdasarkan berat janjangan rata-rata (BJR) dengan mempertimbangkan tahun tanam dan luas area tanaman. Namun, tehnik ini kurang efektif dan efisien, Apabila perkiraan yang dibuat perusahaan salah berpotensi menyebabkan kerugian atau peningkatan anggaran produksi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mendapatkan perbandingan hasil peramalan pada bulan berikutnya dengan ukuran akurasi alpha terbaik menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah berdasarkan data kualitatif dan kuantitatif dari hasil wawancara dan observasi data bulan desember 2022 - november 2023. Hasil peramalan dari ukuran akurasi nilai alpha 0.9 menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing diperoleh peramalan untuk periode desember 2023 sebesar 13.835578,44 dengan tingkat persentase error MAPE sebesar 9,28%, MAD 1021423.6 dan MSE 174130366.Kata Kunci: kelapa sawit; peramalan; single exponential smoothing
Co-Authors 'Ibad, Reza Irsyadul -, Fajar -, Syapril A. Daniel, Mohammad Ikbal Rizki Abdul Haliq, Abdul Achmad Romadin Amirullah -, Amirullah Anhar, Deli Apri Siswanto Apriani Apriani Ardiansyah, Dika Azhar Azhar Budi Wibowo Butsiarah Darwin Lie Dedi Harianto Dimas Prasaja, Dimas Djohan, Muhammad Iqbal Dyastari, Letizia Efendi Efendi Ernawati, Helni Fadhela, Rahmi Fahmi, Muhammad Zaky Fahri, Anwar Febby Madonna Yuma Gunawan, M. Zuhri Halim, Muh Bhilal Hamka, Buya Handayani Ujianti, Mutiara Handika Fikri Pratama, Handika Fikri Harsa W, Aliffia Hasim, Muhammad Hasriani Hasriani, Hasriani Hazisma, Suhairi Helmiah, Fauriatun Hendrawaty Hendrawaty, Hendrawaty Idris, Adam Ikbal Riski A. Danial, Mohamad Ilhidda, Inul Iqbal, Muhmmad Jaafar, Mohd Zaidi K, Ahmad Yani Kartini harahap Khalif, Ku Muhd Na’im Khoirun Nisa', Khoirun Kurniasih, Surti Leonardo, Ari Lestari, Adhe Utami Lukman, Ichsan Malawat, Sitna Hajar Mansyur Mansyur Mohamad, Mohamad Rafli Muhammad Iskandar Musa Munarti, Munarti Nugroho, Bayu Fajar Parenrengi, Syafiuddin Paundra, Fajar Pramita, Resti Dinda Purnama, Rizky Candra Putra, Dike Fitriansyah Putri, Sukma Rahmadani Rahmadani, Nur Asmi Suci Rahmat Hidayat Ratih Amelia, Ratih Riska Amelia Romizal, Alba Sahtiani Jahrir, Andi Santiara S.R, Revinta Saputra, Feri Andri Sidik, Abdurrahman Soiswaty, Dwi Purnama Sudarmanto Jayanegara Sya'rani, Ridwan Syam, Nurlaily Titis Setyabudi Vialin, Antero Jona Wabdillah Wabdillah, Wabdillah Yahyaddin, Muh Yahyaddin, Muhmmad Yasdin, Yasdin Yusuf, Andi Zulfikar Zuhdi Arman