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All Journal Turbo : Jurnal Program Studi Teknik Mesin Journal on Education Energy : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu-Ilmu Teknik Mathvision : Jurnal Matematika JASIEK (Jurnal Aplikasi Sains, Informasi, Elektronika dan Komputer) KURVATEK CERMIN: Jurnal Penelitian Jurnal Fisika Indonesia Mechonversio: Mechanical Engineering Journal Jurnal Serambi Abdimas TEKIBA : Jurnal Teknologi dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesian Journal of Physics (IJP) Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Journal of Applied Statistics, Mathematics, and Data Science Suara Teknik : Jurnal Ilmiah
Wahyu Nur Achmadin
Universitas PGRI Argopuro Jember
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Mathvision : Jurnal Matematika

 1 
Penggunaan Metode ARIMA dalam Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Non-Migas Indonesia Tahun 2023 Dwi Agustin Retnowardani; Wahyu Nur Achmadin
MathVisioN Vol 5 No 2 (2023): September 2023
Publisher : Prodi Matematika FMIPA Unirow Tuban

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55719/mv.v5i2.984

Abstract

International trade can help a country increase its production capacity and increase its economic development at home, seeing advantages from abroad and vice versa. The value of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports from January 2022 to July 2023 is the data needed to be analyzed in this research. This study uses the Box-Jenkins periodic series (ARIMA) method. In this research, the following methods were used: (1) Collecting secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency of the Republic of Indonesia; (2) Identify the ARIMA model; (3) Checking stationary data; (4) Determine the ARIMA model for forecasting; (5) Using models for forecasting; and (7) drawing conclusions. This research produces forecasting results for the value of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports over five periods. Namely, in August 2023, the value may reach 1.67945 million USD, in September 2023, the value may reach 1.73242 million USD, in October 2023, the value may reach 1.75278 million USD, in November 2023, the value it may reach 1.76061 million USD, and in September 2023, its value may reach 1.76362 million USD.
PENENTUAN NILAI TERKECIL ROOT MEAN SQUARRED ERROR (RMSE) METODE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA EKSPOR KOPI TUJUAN JERMAN Wahyu Nur Achmadin; Dwi Agustin Retnowardani; Dewi Mashitasari; Fita Fatimah; Indah Noor Dwi Kusuma Dewi
MathVisioN Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Maret 2024
Publisher : Prodi Matematika FMIPA Unirow Tuban

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55719/mv.v6i1.1102

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji dinamika ekspor kopi dari Indonesia ke Jerman dengan menerapkan metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk proses peramalan. Fokus penelitian hanya akan dibatasi pada penentuan nilai Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) terkecil. Tujuan utama penelitian adalah memberikan pemahaman yang mendalam mengenai tren, pola musiman, dan kinerja keseluruhan ekspor kopi dari tahun 2000 hingga 2022. Penelitian uji efektivitas berbagai kombinasi parameter (α, β, dan ɣ) menggunakan data yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia yang kemudian diimplementasikan pada metode Holt-Winters untuk mendapatkan prediksi yang akurat. Penelitian mempertimbangkan berbagai faktor dengan menyesuaikan nilai-nilai parameter ini dalam kisaran 0,1 hingga 0,9 untuk meminimalkan nilai Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Melalui visualisasi grafis dan analisis statistik, penelitian mengidentifikasi kombinasi parameter optimal yang menghasilkan RMSE terendah, yang menunjukkan prediksi yang paling akurat dalam peramalan.
Co-Authors Abdillah, Hartawan Abdul Ghofur Adi Mulyadi Agung B S Utomo Agung Bambang Setio Utomo Agung Bambang Setio Utomo Agus Cahyono Ahlan Ahlan Ahmad Fauzan Alief Muhammad Aprilia, Ira Ary Analisa Rahma Audia Dwi Retno Wulandari Dani Hari Tunggal Prasetiyo Defriatno, Mawan Eko Dewi Mashitasari Dewi, Indah Noor Dwi Kusuma Djoko Wahyudi Djoko Wahyudi Dwi Agustin Retnowardani Eva Kurnia Yulyawan Fita Fatimah Fita Fatimah, Fita Haris S Dyatmika Hermin Arista I. Setiawan Ikhsan Setiawan Ikhsan Setiawan Indah Noor Dwi Kusuma Dewi Indah Noor Dwi Kusuma Dewi Indro Wicaksono Jibril Maulana Laeliyatul Hasanah Linda Kurnia Supraptiningsih Mas Ahmad Baihaqi Mashitasari, Dewi Masruroh, Zuwidatul Prastowo Murti Roisul Amin, Muhammad Muhammad Zainal Siti Masluha Swari, Utami Ratna Utami Ratna Swari Utami Ratna Swari Utami Ratna Swari Wulandari, Vebi Zuwidatul Masruroh