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All Journal Wahana Teknik Sipil: Jurnal Pengembangan Teknik Sipil Pondasi Briliant: Jurnal Riset dan Konseptual Journal of Advanced Civil and Environmental Engineering SCIENCE TECH: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Teknologi Astonjadro Ge-STRAM: Jurnal Perencanaan dan Rekayasa Sipil Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management Research (JIEMAR) Media Komunikasi Dunia Ilmu Sipil (MoDuluS) Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan Jurnal Ilmiah Telsinas Elektro, Sipil dan Teknik Informasi Jurnal Ilmiah Arsitektur Proceedings Series on Physical & Formal Sciences Jurnal Teknik Sipil Giratory Upgris Automotive Experiences Teknika Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknik Sipil UMS Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Jurnal Ilmiah Sultan Agung Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Management JIM: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pendidikan Sejarah VISA: Journal of Vision and Ideas
Rachmat Mudiyono, Rachmat
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Journal : Automotive Experiences

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Modeling Causal Analysis of Crash Severity on Indonesian Toll Road Using Integrated Z-Score and Bayesian Network Framework Istiyanto, Bambang; Pratikso; Mudiyono, Rachmat; Nurrohman, Hafidz
Automotive Experiences Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Issue in Progress
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31603/ae.15445

Abstract

Traffic crashes remain a critical safety challenge, with Indonesia experiencing 73,446 fatalities annually. This study develops an integrated Z-Score and Bayesian Network framework to analyze causal interactions between human and environmental factors influencing crash severity on toll roads. Z-Score analysis of 450 crash records (2022”“2025) identified five statistically significant blackspot segments, with KM 430”“431 exhibiting the highest concentration (Z = 4.036, n = 91). A Bayesian Network model constructed using K2 structure learning and Expectation-Maximization parameter estimation achieved 86.2% classification accuracy, surpassing previous international applications (78”“82%). Conditional probability analysis revealed that straight-downhill segments exhibited 3.3-fold higher fatal crash probability than straight-level segments (0.083 vs. 0.025), while night-time conditions increased fatal risk by 57%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that crash type (weighted index = 0.282) and accident cause (0.214) exerted strongest influence on severity outcomes. Human error constituted 83% of crashes but showed moderate sensitivity, indicating that severe outcomes emerge from interactions between human factors and adverse conditions rather than isolated factors. Findings support prioritizing enhanced lighting and speed management on curved-downhill segments during night-time, alongside rear-end collision prevention strategies. This validated framework enables evidence based, proactive crash management and intervention prioritization for toll road safety in developing countries.
Co-Authors Abdul Rochim Abied Rizky Putra Muttaqien Affendi, Achmad Sholikin Aisy, Alfi Rihadatul Andry Sulistyo, Juny Andry, Juny Antonius Antonius Ashari, Mochamad Hisam Ayun, Qurrota Azizah, Nisa Ul Bambang Istiyanto Bimantoro, Leo Candra Irawan Debi, Yoga Tegar Ardi Ekapraja, Huda Eko Sujarwanto Fatah, Muhamad Nadhorudin Ferennita, Aldila Fani Fernando Lumban Tobing, Ronal Ginola, Navy Ananda Hakiim, Chevy Helmi Hapsari, Indri Barianti Hapsoro, Tunggul Henny Pratiwi Adi Hermin Poedjiastoeti Imam Wahyudi Indrawan, Imam Wahyudi Iman, Choirul Irawan, Arie Joko Sutrisno Kartono Wibowo Kartono Wibowo, Kartono Kholifataya, Elsya Lisa Fitriyana, Lisa Mahardika, Vera Mila Karmilah Mohammad Agung Ridlo, Mohammad Agung Muhammad Gunawan Perdana Muhammad Najib Muktiarso, Raffi Athani Munandar, Adnan Arif Niam, M. Faiqun Niam, Moh Faiqun Niam, Mohammad Faiqun nugroho, suko Nurrohman, Hafidz Nuryaman, Asep Nusadhani, Prananing P Sinaga, Agusniko Perdana, Haris Athiya Perdana, Muhammad Gunawan Perwiranegara, Alamsyah Fatih Prabowo Setiyawan, Prabowo Pradhana, Agung Pratikso Pratikso Pratikso Pratikso, P Prihatno, Teguh Purwasih, Dian Ratih Puspitasari, Nikmatul Rochmy Putra, Ikhsan Fauzi Gunawan Raharjo, Oky Fauzi Raharjo, Slamet Putro RATNA SETYANINGSIH Ricardo, Carlen Rama Riska Rohmattun A, Siti Rosantika, Arga S, Safira Santosa, Zaky Dinu Segawati, Vannya Selvia Agustina Sihombing, Alexander Tuahta Soedarsono Soedarsono Sulistyo, Juny Andri Sulistyo, Juny Andry Umar, Muh Alwi Wajdi*, Bina Arumbinang Wajdi, Bina Arumbinang Wibowo, Arief Eko Wibowo, Titus Tonny Wibowo, Titus Tony