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All Journal Media Trend: Berkala Kajian Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Dharma Andalas Jurnal Abdi Insani Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan PENG: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, Pendidikan dan Teknik (IDENTIK) Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis (JUKONI)
Samsuddin, M. Afdal
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Journal : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis (JUKONI)

 1 
Pengaruh Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (PAK) Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) Terhadap PDRB Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Andini; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.515

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the extent to which labor force participation and open unemployment rates influence the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) across 33 regencies/cities in North Sumatra Province over the period 2019–2023. Utilizing panel data regression with a Fixed Effect Model, the results show an R-squared value of 99.12%. Labor force participation has a positive coefficient (44.61) but is statistically insignificant (p = 0.11), while the open unemployment rate has a negative coefficient (−237.44) and is significant at the 90% confidence level (p = 0.096). These findings suggest that increasing the quantity of labor force participation alone is insufficient to boost GRDP without improving labor quality, whereas reducing unemployment has been shown to effectively enhance regional economic output.
Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Dan Ekspor Industri Di Provinsi Jawa Barat Mubarak, Alfan; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.519

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between economic growth, poverty, and industrial exports in West Java Province using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are annual secondary data from 2014 to 2023, which were interpolated into monthly data. The research begins with a stationarity test, followed by the Johansen cointegration test, VECM estimation, as well as Granger causality, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition (VD) analyses. The results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables, making the VECM model suitable for use. The Granger test shows that industrial exports significantly affect economic growth but do not directly influence poverty reduction. The IRF results reveal that economic growth and poverty are more responsive to their own internal shocks, while cross-variable effects are present but relatively weak. The variance decomposition analysis supports this finding, with most fluctuations explained by internal shocks, except for economic growth, which is also influenced by export contributions. These findings emphasize the importance of optimizing the industrial export sector as a driver of sustainable economic growth, alongside inclusive policies to ensure that such growth translates into meaningful poverty reduction in West Java.
Pengaruh Gini Ratio Dan Apbd Per Kapita Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Albajili, Hanif Aqil; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.532

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of income inequality and regional budget expenditure per capita on the Human Development Index (HDI) in East Nusa Tenggara Province. HDI serves as a key metric in assessing the success of human development, encompassing dimensions such as education, health, and standard of living. Income inequality is represented by the Gini Ratio, while regional expenditure per capita reflects the fiscal capability of local governments to deliver public services. The analysis employs annual secondary data from 2014 to 2024 using a multiple linear regression method. The findings of this study are expected to offer empirical insights for formulating equitable and sustainable human development policies in regions facing fiscal and structural limitations such as East Nusa Tenggara.
Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Kesehatan Dan Tingkat Pendidikan Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Indonesia Tahun 2017 - 2024 Fernando, Eric; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.533

Abstract

This research seeks to examine how education and health levels influence poverty in Indonesia over the period from 2017 to 2024, utilizing quarterly data derived from interpolated annual figures. The study employs average years of schooling as a proxy for education, life expectancy as a measure of health, and the poverty rate to represent the level of poverty. A time series regression approach is applied, complemented by classical assumption tests including stationarity, normality, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and multicollinearity to validate the robustness of the model. The findings reveal that education has a statistically significant negative effect on poverty, whereas health does not exert a meaningful impact. The adjusted R-squared value of 0.861 indicates that about 86.1% of the variation in poverty can be explained by the model's independent variables. These results highlight the critical role of enhancing educational access and quality as a strategic approach to poverty reduction in Indonesia. In developing countries, poverty is often influenced by limited access to education and basic health services, which hinders human capital development. Therefore, understanding the role of these factors is essential in designing inclusive and evidence-based public policies.
Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Tingkat Ketenagakerjaan Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Di Negara-Negara Apec: Analisis Regresi Data Panel Tahun 2010–2019 Maulana, Ilham; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.534

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of inflation and unemployment rates on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in APEC member countries from 2010 to 2019. By utilizing the panel data regression method, this study integrates dimensions between countries and time to capture economic dynamics in more depth. The information obtained comes from official publications from international institutions and covers 21 APEC member countries. The resulting regression models include the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), where the selection of the most optimal model is determined through the Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier test. The analysis shows that inflation has a negative and significant impact on GRDP, while the labor absorption rate has a positive and significant impact. These results indicate that price stability and labor acceptance are key elements in driving economic growth in the APEC region. This study is expected to be a reference for economic decision makers in formulating more efficient and comprehensive macroeconomic strategies.
Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Penduduk Miskin Di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Raldo, Alfio; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.535

Abstract

Poverty remains a fundamental challenge in national development, particularly in developing countries such as Indonesia. This study aims to examine the influence of the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) on the percentage of poor population (PP) in West Sumatra Province. Employing a quantitative associative approach, this research utilizes annual secondary data from 1994 to 2023. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression, supported by classical assumption tests and hypothesis testing, including t-tests, F-tests, and the coefficient of determination. The results indicate that, partially, HDI has a significant negative effect on PP, suggesting that improvements in human development contribute to poverty reduction. On the other hand, OUR does not show a statistically significant effect on PP, although it tends to have a negative relationship. Simultaneously, HDI and OUR have a significant joint effect on PP, with an Adjusted R² value of 0.989, indicating a very high predictive capability of the model. These findings offer critical insights for the formulation of inclusive, data-driven socio-economic policies at the provincial level.
Analisis Pengaruh Investasi Penanaman Modal Asing Dan Pdrb Terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka Di Provinsi Kalimantan Barat Maharani, Nuraprillia Dezta; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.546

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Domestic Investment (PMDN) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) in West Kalimantan Province during the period of 2019–2023. The research employs a quantitative approach using panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) to examine causal relationships among variables. The dataset consists of 14 districts/cities over five years, sourced from official publications by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The results reveal that individually, both PMDN and GRDP do not have a statistically significant effect on OUR. However, simultaneously, both variables significantly affect OUR, contributing to 82.11% of the variation. These findings indicate that the effectiveness of investment and economic growth in reducing unemployment is highly influenced by contextual factors such as sectoral composition, interregional disparities, and the nature of investment. Therefore, regional economic development strategies in West Kalimantan should prioritize labor-intensive and inclusive sectors that can create equitable employment opportunities across districts.
Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Rolanda, Pynka; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.548

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves from 1994 to 2024. Foreign exchange reserves are an important indicator in assessing a country's economic resilience, especially in the face of global dynamics. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software. The results showed that simultaneously, export and FDI variables had a significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. However, partially, only FDI shows a positive and significant effect, while exports have a positive but insignificant effect. The Adjusted R-squared value of 83.28% indicates that the variation in foreign exchange reserves can be explained by these two variables, while the rest is influenced by other factors outside the model. These findings provide important implications for the formulation of economic policies, especially in maintaining the stability and growth of foreign exchange reserves through optimizing the export sector and foreign investment flows.
Analisis Kausalitas Antara Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Konsumsi Rumah Tangga, Dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Lubis, Bela Ananda; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.549

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between Government Expenditure (PP), Household Consumption (KRT), and Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD) in North Sumatra Province during the period 1995–2024. The method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), selected after a series of stationarity tests, optimal lag determination, stability tests, Granger causality tests, and Johansen cointegration tests. The results show a significant bidirectional causal relationship between PAD and PP, as well as a significant effect of PAD on KRT, but no causal relationship from KRT to other variables. The cointegration test confirms three long-term relationships among the variables, justifying the use of the VECM model. In the long term, PAD plays an important role in adjusting the equilibrium of the regional economic system, while in the short term, changes in PP and PAD significantly affect the dynamics of their respective variables. The impulse response results indicate that PP and KRT are more responsive to shocks in themselves, while PAD acts as the main driver in correcting long-term disequilibrium. These findings emphasize the importance of strengthening PAD and effective management of government expenditure to support sustainable regional economic growth in North Sumatra Province.
Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas Antara Tingkat Pendidikan, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka, Pdrb Per Kapita, Dan Persentase Penduduk Miskin Di Provinsi Papua Rahayu, Sekar Eka; Samsuddin, M. Afdal
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): JUKONI - Juni
Publisher : CV. SINAR HOWUHOWU

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70134/jukoni.v2i2.553

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causality relationship between the level of education (measured through Average Years of Schooling), Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, and the percentage of poor people in Papua Province. The data used is secondary quarterly time series data for the period 2015-2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. The stationarity test results show that all variables are stationary at the 2nd difference level, while the optimal lag test selects lag 4 as the best lag. The stability test proves that the model used is stable and valid. The Granger Causality test shows no significant short-term causality between variables, but the Johansen cointegration test proves a significant long-term relationship. The VECM estimation shows significant error correction term coefficients on some of the main variables, indicating the existence of an adjustment mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. IRF and Variance Decomposition (VD) results show each variable is most responsive to shocks from itself, but there are also inter-variable influences in the long run. These findings emphasize the importance of integrated development policies to reduce poverty in Papua in a sustainable manner.
Co-Authors Agung Rizki Putra Albajili, Hanif Aqil Amanda Ananda Lubis, Bela Andi Saputra Andini Andini, Andini Anjarsari, Nadia Aqil Albajili, Hanif Dezta Maharani, Nuraprillia Eka Putri , Ananda Fernando, Eric Fitriyanti, Eka Hanasari, Alhayu Ilham Maulana Lubis, Bela Ananda Macela Putri, Disti Maharani, Nuraprillia Dezta Mubarak, Alfan Nurdianti, Lili Rahayu, Sekar Eka Rahmadan, Alyyah Raldo, Alfio Rana, Aninda Andi Rolanda, Pynka Setefanny, Setefanny sultan Zikri Rahmani