Analisis Trend Hasil Per Satuan Luas Tanaman Sayuran Tahun 1969-2006 di Indonesia - Witono Adiyoga (Jurnal Hortikultura, 2009)
Penelitian dilaksanakan pada bulan April-Juni 2008 menggunakan data sekunder tahunan produksi danareal panen sayuran mencakup periode 1969-2006. Jenis sayuran yang dianalisis adalah buncis, bawang daun, bawangmerah, bawang putih, cabai merah, kentang, kubis, lobak, mentimun, petsai, terung, tomat, dan wortel. Penelitianbertujuan menganalisis pola temporal produksi dan hasil per satuan luas sayuran di Indonesia menggunakan (a)analisis trend hasil per satuan luas, (b) analisis trend pertumbuhan produksi, areal panen, dan hasil per satuan luas,serta (c) analisis trend stabilitas hasil per satuan luas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa analisis trend jangkapanjang 1969-2006 tidak menunjukkan indikasi adanya perlambatan hasil per satuan luas. Namun, pada analisis trendper sepuluh-tahunan, indikasi perlambatan hasil per satuan luas ditunjukkan oleh buncis, bawang merah, bawangputih, cabai merah, lobak, dan petsai pada periode-periode tertentu. Selama periode 1969-2006, tingkat pertumbuhanproduksi rerata tahunan terendah diperlihatkan oleh bawang putih (–6,3%), sedangkan tertinggi ditunjukkan olehwortel (8,5%). Pertumbuhan areal panen terendah ditunjukkan oleh bawang putih (–7,5%), sedangkan tertinggi olehtomat dan wortel (6,6%). Sementara itu, pertumbuhan hasil per satuan luas rerata tahunan berkisar antara –2,5%(cabai merah) sampai 6,8% (buncis). Sumber dominan peningkatan produksi bawang merah, cabai merah, kentang,lobak, mentimun, petsai, tomat, dan wortel selama periode 1969-2006 adalah peningkatan areal panen. Peningkatanhasil per satuan luas merupakan sumber dominan bagi pertumbuhan produksi buncis, bawang daun, bawang putih,kubis, dan terung. Selama periode 1969-2006, variabilitas absolut hasil per satuan luas lobak meningkat, sedangkanmentimun dan petsai menurun. Dalam jangka panjang, stabilitas relatif hasil per satuan luas buncis, bawang daun,bawang merah, bawang putih, cabai merah, mentimun, petsai, terung, tomat, dan wortel terhadap trend pertumbuhannyadapat dikategorikan lebih stabil. Secara agregat dalam kurun waktu 1969-2006, koefisien variasi hasil per satuan luasterendah ditunjukkan oleh petsai, sedangkan tertinggi diperlihatkan oleh cabai merah. Upaya peningkatan produksibawang daun, bawang putih, kentang, kubis, petsai, dan wortel perlu diawali dengan identifikasi penyebab ketidakstabilanareal panen, terutama berkaitan dengan profitabilitas komoditas sayuran tersebut. Sementara itu, upayapeningkatan produksi buncis, bawang merah, cabai merah, lobak, mentimun, terung, dan tomat perlu ditempuhmelalui identifikasi penyebab ketidak-stabilan hasil per satuan luas dari sisi penelitian, penyuluhan, maupun kebijakan.Merespons indikasi perlambatan hasil per satuan luas untuk beberapa jenis sayuran, kegiatan penelitian pemuliaanberorientasi peningkatan daya hasil masih perlu mendapat prioritas. Orientasi penelitian pemuliaan yang memberipenekanan ketahanan terhadap hama penyakit serta cekaman lingkungan juga perlu mendapat perhatian lebih besarberkaitan dengan potensinya untuk mengurangi variabilitas hasil per satuan luas.ABSTRACT. Adiyoga, W. 2009. Yield Trend Analysis of Vegetable Crops in Indonesia 1969-2006. The study wascarried out in April to June 2008 by utilizing secondary data of annual vegetable production and harvested area that coveredthe period of 1969-2006. Vegetable crops included in this study were kidney bean, bunching onion, shallots, garlic, hotpepper, potato, cabbage, chinese radish, cucumber, chinese cabbage, eggplant, tomato, and carrot. The objective ofthis study was to analyze the temporal trend of vegetable production and yield in Indonesia using yield trend, growthtrend, and yield stability trend analysis. The results indicated that long-term trend analysis of 1969-2006 period did notshow any slowing yield growth for all vegetable crops studied. However, the ten-years periods trend analysis suggeststhe trend of slowing yield growth for kidney bean, shallots, garlic, hot pepper, chinese radish, and chinese cabbage incertain ten-year periods. During the period of 1969-2006, the lowest average annual production growth was shownon garlic (-6.3%), and the highest was on carrot (8.5%). The lowest annual growth in harvested area was shown bygarlic (-7.5%), while the highest was indicated by tomato and carrot (6.6%). The lowest annual yield growth was foundon hot pepper (-2.5%), while the highest was on kidney bean (6.8%). The production growth of shallots, hot pepper,potato, chinese radish, cucumber, chinese cabbage, tomato, and carrot in 1969-2006 has been dominantly harvestedarea-led. Meanwhile, yield growth has been a dominant source of kidney bean, bunching onion, garlic, cabbage, andeggplant production growth. During 1969-2006, absolute yield variability for chinese radish was increasing, while forcucumber and chinese cabbage was decreasing. Furthermore, a decreasing relative yield variability, i.e. more stableyield, was indicated for kidney bean, bunching onion, shallots, garlic, hot pepper, cucumber, chinese cabbage, eggplant,tomato, and carrot. The lowest yield coefficient of variation was shown by chinese cabbage, while the highest wasshown by hot pepper. The effort for increasing bunching onion, garlic, potato, cabbage, chinese cabbage, and carrotproduction should be initiated by identifying the causes of harvested area variability that have to be sorted in terms offactors such as relative profitability and other constraints. Meanwhile, since a greater contribution of yield variabilityto production variability was identified, the effort for increasing kidney bean, shallots, hot pepper, chinese radish, cucumber, eggplant, and tomato production suggests the need for identifying the causes of yield variability in termsof research, extension, and policy measures. Responding to a slowing yield trend for some vegetable crops, breedingresearch activities that are increasing yield frontier-oriented still need to be prioritized. Moreover, breeding researchactivities that are generating reduction in yield variability, such as disease and pest resistance and environmentalstressedtolerance should also be emphasized.