VOLATILITAS HARGA KOMODITAS TIMAH - Adis Imam Munandar; Hermanto Siregar; Trias Andati; Lukytawati Anggraeni (MIX: JURNAL ILMIAH MANAJEMEN, 2016)
Abstract. The aim of this research is to analyse the factors which influence the pricevolatility of tin commodity. Monthly basis data were collected from 1990 to 2015. Weemployed ARCH-GARCH models and verified by interview with tin expert. Theresults showed that model EGARCH (1,1,1) is the best model to explain the pricevolatility of tin commodity. Changing factors from crude oil price, copper price, leadprice and T-Bill 3M were significantly affecting volatility in tin price. Experts believethe high volatility from 2001 to 2015 led to the difficulties in developing ofdownstream tin industry in Indonesia.Keyword: ARCH-GARCH, Price, Tin, VolatilityAbstract. Tujuan penelitian menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitasharga komoditas timah. Data yang digunakan bersifat bulanan dari tahun 1990 hinggatahun 2015. Metode penelitian menggunakan ARCH-GARCH model dan verfikasidengan interview pakar timah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model EGARCH (1,1,1)merupakan model terbaik menjelaskan volatilitas harga komoditas timah. Faktorperubahan harga minyak mentah, perubahan harga tembaga, perubahan harga timbaldan perubahan T-Bill 3M secara signifikan mempengaruhi volatilitas perubahan hargatimah. Pakar berpendapat volatilitas tinggi sejak tahun 2001 hingga 2015 menyebabkanindustri hilir komoditas timah sulit berkembang di Indonesia.Kata kunci: ARCH-GARCH, Harga, Timah, Volatilitas.