DAMPAK IMPOR BBM TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR - Sofie Fadhilah Chomas; Rima Annisa Romli; Nurzaman Nurzaman; Lukmanul Hakim (Economics Development Analysis Journal, 2014)
Abstrak ___________________________________________________________________ Melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar akan berpengaruh pada harga barang-barang impor. Salah satu bahan impor yang penting dan sangat banyak dipergunakan oleh masyarakat adalah Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM). Dengan kenaikan konsumsi bahan bakar secara berkelanjutan telah berpengaruh terhadap lonjakan impor minyak. Dampak lanjutannya, neraca transaksi berjalan memburuk sehingga nilai tukar rupiah makin terjungkal. DiData Bank Indonesia memaparkan dalam tiga tahun terakhir nilai tukar rupiah terus memburuk seiring dengan kenaikan impor minyak dan gas. Pada Januari 2010, impor migas masih sekitar US$ 1,6 miliar dan saat itu nilai tukar rupiah mengacu pada kurs tengah Bank Indonesia masih Rp 8.286 per dolar AS. Namun, sejak pertengahan 2011, impor migas rata-rata sudah melebihi US$ 3 miliar. Tak jarang menyentuh US$ 4 miliar per bulan. Bahkan, pada Juli 2013, setelah pemerintah menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi, impor minyak juga menembus angka US$ 4 miliar karena konsumsi BBM tetap melonjak.Lonjakan impor minyak ini menimbulkan defisit neraca perdagangan migas. Tak pelak, pembengkakan defisit transaksi berjalan tak bisa terhindarkan. Bahkan, defisit transaksi berjalan sudah terjadi sepanjang 9 kuartal atau 26 bulan. Defisit transaksi tahun lalu mencapai US$ 24 miliar dan tahun ini diperkirakan di atas US$ 30 miliar.Beban defisit transaksi berjalan yang kian membengkak menimbulkan sentimen negatif bagi investor sehingga terjadi aliran dana keluar. Aliran modal keluar, serta kebutuhan dolar yang meningkat akibat kenaikan impor BBM membuat nilai tukar rupiah semakin rentan.. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu melihat trend dan sejarah. Dengan menggunakan data sekunder danmenggunakan jenis data gabungan dari data time series (periode 1997-2014 ini) yang bersumber dariÂ  pengolahan data-data yang ada. Hasil penelitian ini adalah mambahas mengenai dampaknilai tukar rupiah yang terus memburuk seiring dengan kenaikan impor bahan bakar minyak di dunia. Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ The weakening of the rupiah against the dollar will affect the price of imported goods. One of the essential ingredients imported and very much used by the public is fuel oil (BBM). With the increase in fuel consumption in a sustainable manner have an effect on oil imports surge. Subsequent impacts, the current account deteriorates making the exchange rate more tumbling. Bank Indonesia recorded explained in the last three years the exchange rate continues to deteriorate due to higher oil and gas imports. In January 2010, the import of oil and gas is still about U.S. $ 1.6 billion and at that time the exchange rate refers to the exchange rate of Bank Indonesia is Rp 8,286 per U.S. dollar. However, since mid-2011, the average oil and gas imports has exceeded U.S. $ 3 billion. Not infrequently touched U.S. $ 4 billion per month. In fact, in July 2013, after the government raised the price of subsidized fuel, oil imports also reached U.S. $ 4 billion for fuel consumption and oil imports is high. This raises the oil trade deficit. Inevitably, a swelling current account deficit is unavoidable. In fact, the current account deficit has occurred during the quarter 9 or 26 months. Account deficit last year reached U.S. $ 24 billion and this year is estimated at over U.S. $ 30 miliar.The load growing current account deficit swells cause negative sentiment for investors resulting in the flow of funds out. Capital outflows, as well as the need for dollars increased due to the increase in fuel imports make the exchange rate more vulnerable .. The analytical method used in this study is to see trends and history. By using secondary data and used combined data types of time series data (the 1997-2014 period) are derived from the processing of existing data. The results of this study are discuss about impact value rupiah continued to deteriorate due to higher imports of fuel oil in the world. Â© 2014 Universitas Negeri Semarang Â