ANALISIS RISIKO JALAN TOL LAYANG BERBASIS LIKELIHOOD–IMPACT DAN MATRIKS RISIKO - Mardiaman; Arif Budi Harsono; Sopar Butarbutar (JMTS: Jurnal Mitra Teknik Sipil, 2026)
This study evaluates and prioritizes construction risks in the Ancol Timur–Pluit elevated toll road project using an integrated likelihood–impact and risk matrix approach. Infrastructure projects in dense urban environments involve high complexity due to technical constraints, land acquisition issues, stakeholder interactions, and environmental limitations that affect project time, cost, and quality performance. Data were collected through structured questionnaires distributed to construction professionals, including engineers, project managers, consultants, and contractors, using purposive sampling. A total of 51 respondents with more than 10 years of experience participated in this study. The analysis adopted a qualitative risk assessment framework based on probability–impact evaluation, where risk prioritization was conducted using likelihood and impact scoring rather than monetary estimation. A five-point Likert scale was applied, and the risk index was calculated as the product of both parameters. The results indicate that land acquisition risks were dominant, with the highest risk index (11,70) associated with delays in land handover. Most risks were categorized as medium to high, emphasizing the importance of early-stage mitigation. This study introduces a phase-based risk dominance perspective to support risk prioritization and decision-making in construction projects. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi dan memprioritaskan risiko konstruksi pada proyek Jalan Tol Layang Ancol Timur–Pluit menggunakan pendekatan likelihood–impact yang terintegrasi dengan matriks risiko. Proyek infrastruktur di kawasan perkotaan memiliki tingkat kompleksitas tinggi akibat kendala teknis, pembebasan lahan, interaksi pemangku kepentingan, serta keterbatasan lingkungan yang memengaruhi kinerja waktu, biaya, dan mutu proyek. Data dikumpulkan melalui kuesioner terstruktur kepada praktisi konstruksi yang terdiri atas engineer, manajer proyek, konsultan, dan kontraktor menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. Sebanyak 51 responden dengan pengalaman lebih dari 10 tahun berpartisipasi dalam penelitian ini. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan analisis risiko kualitatif berbasis probability–impact, di mana prioritas risiko ditentukan melalui penilaian likelihood dan impact, bukan evaluasi moneter. Penilaian menggunakan skala Likert lima tingkat dan indeks risiko dihitung sebagai hasil perkalian kedua parameter. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa risiko pembebasan lahan mendominasi dengan nilai indeks tertinggi sebesar 11,70 pada keterlambatan penyerahan lahan. Sebagian besar risiko berada pada kategori sedang hingga tinggi. Penelitian ini memperkenalkan konsep phase-based risk dominance yang menekankan pentingnya fase pra-konstruksi dalam pengelolaan risiko proyek.