ANALISIS FAKTOR EKONOMI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO MENTAH INDONESIA - Muhammad A. Budiman (Departemen Sosial Ekonomi Faperta Unpad, 2016)
ABSTRAKKakao mentah di Indonesia termasuk dalam komoditas unggulan yang memberikan kontribusi dalamupaya peningkatan devisa Indonesia melalui. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa signifikansibesaran nilai volume ekspor kakao mentah yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor ekonomi. Penelitianini menggunakan desain kuantitatif dan studi litelatur menggunakan data sekunder, sampel data yangdigunakan bersifat kurun waktu selama 30 tahun hingga tahun 2013. Metodologi penelitian inimenggunakan model ekonometrika dengan teknik analisis regresi berganda dan metode kuadratterkecil atau ordinary least square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa secara partialVariabel Jumlah Produksi Kakao Indonesia, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Domestik Biji KakaoIndonesia memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan dan pajak ekspor secara partial memiliki pengaruhyang tidak signifikan terhadap perkembangan volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia. Sedangkan secarasimultan Variabel Jumlah Produksi Kakao Indonesia, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Domestik BijiKakao Indonesia dan Pajak Eksport memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap perkembanganvolume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia.Kata kunci : volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia, harga domestik, pajak ekspor, nilai tukar rupiahABSTRACTIndonesian raw cocoa is one of commodities that has important roles on Indonesian export,especially for economic growth on GDP. Indonesian cocoa beans included in the priority which hasa very important role in export activities including in Indonesia as one of the primary commoditywhich would contribute to an increase in foreign exchange for Indonesia. This paper aims to identifyhow big the influence of the total production of Indonesian cocoa beans, exchange rate, cocoa beansprice and the export tax to the amount of Indonesia's exports of cocoa both simultaneously and toidentify which are the most influential factor. This study design is a quantitative research. Data weregained through desk study with time series data of 30 years. This research used econometrics toreflect the outcome of the discussions to be expressed in numbers by using multiple regressionanalysis and ordinary least square (OLS). The results show that the simultaneous variable theproduction of Indonesian cocoa, Exchange Rate, Domestic Prices of Indonesian cocoa beans andExport Tax has a significant influence on the development of Indonesian cocoa beans exportsvolume. A partial variable the production of Indonesian cocoa, Exchange Rate, Domestic Prices ofIndonesian cocoa beans has a significant influence and the partial export tax has no significanteffect on the development of Indonesian cocoa exports volume.Keywords: Indonesian cocoa beans volume exports, domestic prices, export taxes