MODEL BEHAVIOURAL SCORING PADA BISNIS PEMBIAYAAN KONSUMEN MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS DAYA TAHAN (STUDI KASUS: PT KARYA BESAR CABANG BOGOR) - Setiawan, Andi; Siregar, Hermanto; Maulana, Tubagus NA (SBM ITB, 2014)
Abstrak. Kompetisi dalam industry jasa keuangan mendorong peningkatan risiko kredit. PT. Karya Besar sebagai perusahaan jasa keuangan harus mengelola risiko kreditnya secara efektif untuk meminimalkan tingkat non perfoming loan (NPL). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi variabel yang signifikan mempengaruhi risiko kredit, mengukur potensi risiko kredit berdasarkan model behavioural scoring. dan mengembangkan strategi pengelolaan account secara efektif dan efisien. Peluang gagal bayar diprediksi dengan model behavioural scoring yang menggunakan nalisa daya tahan. Penelitian ini menggunakan kombinasi antara variabel yang bergantung dengan waktu dan variabel yang statis dalam model cox proportional hazard. Variabel Delinquency, down payment, installment to income ratio, dan balance hutang signifikan secara statistik dalam model behavioural scoring. Strategi pengelolaan account yang efektif dan efisien akan dikembangkan berdasarkan model behavioural scoring. Hasil simulasi penerapan model behavioural scoring menunjukkan penurunan tingkat NPL dan biaya operasional.Kata kunci : Cox Proportional Hazard, Daya Tahan, Jasa Keuangan, Non Perfoming Loan, Risiko KreditAbstract. Competition in financial service industry push the increasing of credit risk. PT. Karya Besar as a financial service company has to manage the credit risk to efectively minimize non perfoming loan. The research aims to identify variables that have significant influence on the credit risk, to measure the potential of credit risk based on behavioural scoring model, and to develop effective and efficient account management strategies. Probability of default is predicted with behavioural scoring model using survival analysis. This research propose combination of time dependent covariates and static covariate in cox proportional hazard model. Delinquency, down payment, installment to income ratio, and balance are statistically significant default predictor in behavioural scoring model. Effective and efficient account management strategies will develop based on behavioural scoring model. Simulation result of behavioural scoring model implementation show reducing Non perfoming loan and operational cost. Keyword : Cox Proportional Hazard, Credit Risk, Financial Service, Non Perfoming Loan, Survival