REAKSI PASAR MODAL TERHADAP PEMILIHAN UMUM PRESIDEN UNTUK MERAMAL REAKSI TERHADAP PILPRES SELANJUTNYA (Studi Peristiwa Pada Saham Kelompok Indeks LQ45) - Muhammad Abdul Ghoni (STIESNU Bengkulu, 2020)
ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis perbedaan rata-rata abnormal return dan rata-rata trading volume activity sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan Pilpres 2014. Penelitian ini menggunakan event study, dimana pengamatan dilakukan selama 7 hari kerja sebelum sampai 7 hari kerja sesudah pelaksanaan Pilpres 2014. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Bursa Efek Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi harga penutupan saham harian, indeks saham LQ45, volume perdagangan saham harian, dan jumlah saham yang beredar. Return ekspektasi menggunakan model disesuaikan dengan pasar (market-adjusted-model). Sedangkan sampel yang digunakan adalah saham-saham yang termasuk dalam daftar LQ45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukan: Pertama, berdasarkan uji statistik terhadap rata-rata abnormal return saham selama periode peristiwa, ditemukan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara rata-rata abnormal return sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan Pilpres 2014. Kedua, dari hasil uji statistik terhadap rata-rata trading volume activity sebelum dan sesudah Pilpres 2014, terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan terhadap rata-rata trading volume activity sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan Pilpres 2014. Kata kunci: Rata-rata abnormal return, Rata-rata trading volume activity, Return ekspektasi, Market-adjusted-model, Event study, Pilpres 2014. ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference in average abnormal return and average trading volume activity before and after the implementation of the 2014 presidential election. This research uses event study, in which observations are made during the 7 working days before to 7 working days after the implementation of the 2014 presidential election. This research used secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data used in this research include the daily closing share price, stock index LQ45, daily stock trading volume, and the number of shares outstanding. Expected return using a model adapted to the market (market-adjusted-model). The sample of this research consist of LQ45 stocks that were listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The results showed: First, based on a statistical test of the average abnormal return during the event period, the finding is that there is no significant difference between the average abnormal return before and after the 2014 presidential election. Second, the results of statistical tests to the average trading volume activity before and after the 2014 presidential election, there is a significant difference to the average trading volume activity before and after the implementation of the presidential election 2014. Keywords : Average abnormal return, Average trading volume activity, Return expectations, Market-adjusted-model, Event study, The 2014 presidential election.