TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ATAS PEMBERLAKUAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN HORTIKULTURA INDONESIA - Naufal Nur Mahdi; Suharno; Rita Nurmalina (Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia, 2021)
Abstrak Dampak positif seharusnya diperoleh subsektor hortikultura Indonesia atas implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, subsektor hortikultura Indonesia belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika impor produk hortikultura meningkat melalui tahapan penurunan tarif ACFTA dalam program The Early Harvest Program (EHP). Studi ini meneliti keragaan impor hortikultura Indonesia dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China serta dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap impor produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) dan metode ekonometrik melalui pendekatan model gravitasi dengan data panel dari tahun 2001-2018. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut. Model gravitasi juga menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota ACFTA mampu memanfaatkan perjanjian regional ini dengan ditandai tingginya nilai impor hortikultura Indonesia terutama dari China. Ini menandakan bahwa pelaksanaan ACFTA telah menciptakan efek penciptaan perdagangan dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antara negara anggota ACFTA, namun tidak menyebabkan pengalihan perdagangan dengan negara non-anggota (perdagangan dengan negara non anggota tidak mengalami penurunan). Oleh karena itu, diperlukan langkah kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Data Panel, Daya Saing, Integrasi Ekonomi, Model Gravitasi, RSCA Abstract The positive impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the indonesia’s horticulture sub-sector should be obtained. However, the Indonesian horticulture sub-sector has not shown significant performance when import of horticultural products has increased through the ACFTA tariff reduction stages in The Early Harvest Programm (EHP). This study examines the performance of Indonesian horticultural imports using descriptive analysis. It also analyzes the competitiveness of horticultural products of ASEAN-5 countries with China as well as the impact of trade creation and trade diversion of the implementation of ACFTA on imports of Indonesian horticultural products. It uses the RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) index and the gravity model using panel data from 2001-2018. It shows that Indonesia is not competitive in both types of horticultural products (RSCA <0). The gravity model also indicates that ACFTA member countries have taken advantage of this regional agreement, marked by the high value of Indonesian horticultural imports, especially from China. This shows that the implementation of the ACFTA has created a trade creation effect by increasing intra-regional trade between ACFTA member countries, but has not led to a diversion of trade with non-member countries (trade with non-member countries has not decreased). Therefore, it is necessary to make policy strategies to increase competitiveness through improvements in managerial and technological components in line with the opening of the market in this region to Indonesian MSMEs. Keywords: Competitiveness, Economic Integration, Gravity Model, Panel Data, RSCA JEL Classification: F15, F17, Q17