PREDIKSI SEBARAN ASAP KEBAKARAN HUTAN/LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN WRF/CHEM (Studi Kasus: Tanggal 14 dan 20 Juni 2012, Pekanbaru-Riau) - Eko Heriyanto; Danang Eko Nuryanto (Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG, 2014)
Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan prediksi sebaran asap kebakaran hutan/lahan di wilayah Indonesia. Simulasi prediksi sebaran asap (hindcast) menggunakan model Weather Research and Forecasting with CHEMistry (WRF/CHEM) pada kasus kebakaran hutan/lahan tanggal 14 dan 20 Juni 2012 di wilayah Pekanbaru-Riau. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan data luaran WRF resolusi 25 km dan emisi global . Hasil simulasi konsentrasi Carbon Monoxide (CO) luaran WRF/CHEM menggambarkan pola yang identik dengan hasil luaran Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC-Reanalysis 1.10). Dilakukan juga analisis kualitatif terhadap hasil simulasi kedua model dengan citra satelit Aqua-Terra MODIS, NOAA-18, dan total column CO Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) dari NASA. Korelasi simulasi kedua model menunjukkan nilai yang baik antara 0.55 – 0.83. Secara umum dapat disimpulkan bahwa WRF/CHEM mampu mensimulasikan sebaran asap kebakaran hutan/lahan secara akurat. Hasil penelitian ini bisa menjadi salah satu langkah awal dalam pengembangan sistem peringatan dini sebaran asap kebakaran hutan/lahan di wilayah Indonesia. This study aims to develop a predictive distribution of forest fire smoke/land in the territory of Indonesia. The simulation of smoke spread prediction (hindcast) is using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with CHEMistry (WRF/CHEM) in the case of forest fires/land dated June 14, 2012, in Pekanbaru-Riau region. This study uses the WRF data output resolution 25 km and global emissions. Carbon Monoxide concentration simulation results (CO) which is the WRF/CHEM output describes patterns that are identical to the results of Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC-Reanalysis 1.1250) outcomes. a qualitative analysis of the results of both simulation models with satellite imagery MODIS Aqua-Terra, NOAA-18 and the Total column CO Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (Airs) from NASA has been conducted as well. Both simulation models show a correlation value between 0.55 - 0.83. In general, it can be concluded that the WRF/CHEM can simulate the spread of forest fire smoke/land accurately. The results of this study could be one of the first steps in the development of an early warning system of forest fire spread smoke/land in the territory of Indonesia.