Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing, Indeks Harga Konsumen, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Ekspor di 5 Negara Asia Tenggara Periode Sebelum dan Pasca Pandemi Covid-19 - Puspitasari, Wina Kristi; Nugraha, Handy (Universitas PGRI Palembang, 2025)
ABSTRAK Periode 2019-2023 menghadirkan ketidakpastian ekonomi global akibat pandemi Covid-19, yang memberi tekanan pada sektor ekspor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK), dan pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap nilai ekspor di lima negara di Asia Tenggara yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, dan Singapura dengan pengamatan pada periode sebelum covid (2009-2018) dan pasca covid (2019-2023). Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang dikumpulkan dari lembaga internasional yaitu Worldbank dan International Trade Centre (Trade Map) dengan metode analisis regresi data panel, penelitian ini mengeksplorasi hubungan antara variabel-variabel tersebut dan dampaknya terhadap kinerja ekspor. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa sebelum pandemi Covid-19, IHK dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap ekspor. Sementara PMA tidak berpengaruh terhadap ekspor di lima negara Asia Tenggara tahun 2009-2018. Pasca pandemi Covid-19 yaitu periode 2019-2023, ditemukan bahwa PMA dan IHK berpengaruh positif, sementara pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak berpengaruh terhadap ekspor di lima negara Asia Tenggara. Covid-19 memberikan dinamika pada faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor. Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Penanaman Modal Asing, Indeks Harga Konsumen, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. ABSTRACT The 2019-2023 period presents global economic uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which puts pressure on the export sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Economic growth on the value of exports in five countries in Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore with observations in the pre-covid (2009-2018) and post-covid (2019-2023) periods. This study uses secondary data collected from international institutions, namely the Worldbank and the International Trade Center (Trade Map) with the panel data regression analysis method, this study explores the relationship between these variables and their impact on export performance. The results found that before the Covid-19 pandemic, CPI and economic growth had a positive effect on exports. Meanwhile, FDI had no effect on exports in five Southeast Asian countries in 2009-2018. After the Covid-19 pandemic, namely the 2019-2023 period, it was found that FDI and CPI had a positive effect, while economic growth had no effect on exports in five Southeast Asian countries. Covid-19 provides dynamics to the factors that affect exports. Keywords : Export, Foreign Investment, Consumer Price Index, Economic Growth.