Perilaku Memilih Masyarakat dalam Pilkada Bojonegoro: Studi Hubungan antara Identifikasi Partai, Afiliasi Ormas, dan Kesesuaian Program Kandidat dengan Pemilih atas Pilihan Calon Bupati dan Wakil Bupati: Voter Behavior in the Bojonegoro Regional Election: A Study of the Relationship between Party Identification, Mass Organization Affiliation, and the Alignment of Candidate Programs with Voter Preferences for Regent and Vice Regent Candidates - Ali Sahab (LP2M Universitas Islam Negeri Kiai Haji Achmad Siddiq Jember, 2009)
The direct local election in Bojonegoro in 2007 was won by the initially unpopular Suyoto-Setyo Hartono pair, defeating the incumbent. This phenomenon is crucial as it challenges the assumption that support from major parties or popularity alone determines victory. This study aims to examine the relationship between party identification, religious mass organization affiliation, and candidate-program suitability on voter choice. Using a quantitative survey method with 384 respondents selected through systematic random sampling, data were analyzed using cross-tabulation, Chi-Square test, and contingency coefficient. The results show that all three independent variables have significant relationships with voter choice. However, candidate-program suitability has the strongest correlation (C=0.788), while party identification (C=0.393) and mass organization affiliation (C=0.307) have weaker correlations. In conclusion, the victory of the Suyoto-Setyo Hartono pair was primarily due to their measurable, transparent programs that addressed urgent community needs such as agriculture, infrastructure, health, and education. It is recommended that candidates and policymakers prioritize clear and accountable work programs rather than relying solely on party identity or endorsements from figures. Pemilihan kepala daerah langsung di Bojonegoro pada 2007 dimenangkan oleh pasangan Suyoto-Setyo Hartono yang awalnya tidak populer, mengalahkan petahana. Fenomena ini penting karena menantang asumsi bahwa dukungan partai besar atau popularitas semata menentukan kemenangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji hubungan antara identifikasi partai, afiliasi organisasi kemasyarakatan (ormas) keagamaan, dan kesesuaian program kandidat terhadap pilihan pemilih. Menggunakan metode survei kuantitatif dengan sampel 384 responden melalui systematic random sampling serta analisis tabulasi silang, uji Chi Square, dan koefisien kontingensi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketiga variabel independen memiliki hubungan signifikan dengan pilihan pemilih. Namun, variabel kesesuaian program kandidat memiliki korelasi paling kuat (C=0,788), sementara identifikasi partai (C=0,393) dan afiliasi ormas (C=0,307) memiliki korelasi lebih lemah. Kesimpulannya, kemenangan pasangan Suyoto-Setyo Hartono terutama disebabkan oleh program yang terukur, transparan, dan sesuai kebutuhan mendesak masyarakat seperti pertanian, infrastruktur, kesehatan, dan pendidikan. Direkomendasikan agar kandidat dan pembuat kebijakan mengedepankan program kerja yang jelas dan akuntabel dibandingkan hanya mengandalkan identitas partai atau dukungan tokoh.