Analisis Pemrograman Preservasi Jalan dengan Strategi Penanganan Sementara (Back-fall Strategy) Skala Jaringan menggunakan Metode IRMS V.3 dan MEPDG 2015 - Gita Yuliani; Eri Susanto Hariyadi; Ade Sjafruddin (Institut Teknologi Bandung, 2025)
Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan akurasi metode prediksi kondisi jalan antara MEPDG 2015 dan IRMS V.3 sebagai dasar pemrograman preservasi jalan pada skala jaringan. Studi dilakukan pada enam ruas jalan nasional Pantura sepanjang 55,87 km dengan karakteristik lalu lintas beragam. Prediksi IRI metode MEPDG 2015 dihitung menggunakan pendekatan mekanistik-empiris dengan tiga jenis kalibrasi (Global, Arizona, dan Oregon), serta bantuan software ELMOD 6 dan KENPAVE. IRMS V.3 menggunakan pendekatan empiris berbasis data historis. Hasil prediksi dibandingkan dengan data aktual tahun 2021–2023 untuk menghitung deviasi relatif, kemudian dianalisis dalam program preservasi selama 20 tahun dengan dua skenario: unconstrained budget dan constrained budget menggunakan Back-fall Strategy (strategi menunda, bertahap, dan holding). MEPDG 2015 kalibrasi Oregon menunjukkan deviasi relatif terkecil (−15,48%) dan merupakan metode paling akurat. Dalam kondisi tanpa batasan anggaran, metode ini lebih hemat dibanding IRMS V.3. Dalam keterbatasan anggaran, strategi holding dengan MEPDG 2015 menghasilkan kemantapan jalan akhir 2–3 kali lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan strategi lain, meskipun biayanya 1–2% lebih besar. Dengan demikian, MEPDG 2015 kalibrasi lokal Oregon dengan strategi holding direkomendasikan sebagai strategi terbaik saat terjadi keterbatasan anggaran di skala jaringan. Kata-kata Kunci: Back-fall strategy, IRMS V.3, MEPDG 2015, preservasi. Abstract This study aims to compare the accuracy of road condition prediction methods between MEPDG 2015 and IRMS V.3 as a basis for network-level road preservation programming. The study was conducted on six continuous segments of the Pantura national road spanning 55.87 km with varying traffic characteristics. IRI prediction using the MEPDG 2015 method was calculated based on a mechanistic-empirical approach with three calibration types (Global, Arizona, and Oregon), supported by ELMOD 6 and KENPAVE software. Meanwhile, IRMS V.3 applies an empirical approach based on historical data. The prediction results were compared with actual field data from 2021–2023 to calculate relative deviation and analyzed in a 20-year preservation program under two budget scenarios: unconstrained and constrained budget using the Back-fall Strategy (postponed, gradual, and holding strategies). MEPDG 2015 with Oregon calibration showed the smallest relative deviation (−15.48%) and was the most accurate method. Under an unconstrained budget, it was also more cost-efficient than IRMS V.3. Under budget constraints, the holding strategy with MEPDG 2015 produced 2–3 times higher final road condition performance when compared to other strategies, despite requiring 1–2% more cost. Therefore, MEPDG 2015 with local Oregon calibration and holding strategy is recommended as the best option under limited budget conditions at the network level. Keywords: Back-fall strategy, IRMS V.3, MEPDG 2015, preservation.