PREDICTION OF ON-TIME GRADUATION OF UNIVERSITAS ROYAL STUDENTS USING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION METHOD - Rahmadani, Nurul; Kurniawan, Edi; Nurhasanah, Nurhasanah; Damanik, Wahdan (Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM) STMIK Royal Kisaran, 2025)
Abstract: On-time graduation is an important indicator in measuring the success of higher education and reflects the effectiveness of the academic process in higher education. Royal University, especially the Information Systems Study Program, still faces challenges in increasing the percentage of students who graduate on time. This study aims to identify factors that influence students' on-time graduation and build a prediction model using the multiple linear regression method. This method was chosen because it is able to analyze the simultaneous influence of several independent numeric variables on one dependent variable, making it suitable for studying the complex relationship between factors that influence student graduation. The independent variables analyzed in this study include GPA, parental income, and student part-time jobs with student graduation as the dependent variable. The results showed that parental income and part-time jobs had a significant positive effect on on-time graduation, while GPA had a negative effect. The model built had an R² value of 0.6153 and a standard error of 4.0653, indicating that the model was quite strong and accurate. These findings recommend Universitas Royal to strengthen the academic monitoring system and support working students, as well as design policies based on students' socio-economic conditions to increase the on-time graduation rate.Keywords: multiple linear regression; on-time graduation; students. Abstrak: Kelulusan tepat waktu merupakan indikator penting dalam mengukur keberhasilan pendidikan tinggi serta mencerminkan efektivitas proses akademik di perguruan tinggi. Universitas Royal, khususnya Program Studi Sistem Informasi, masih menghadapi tantangan dalam meningkatkan persentase mahasiswa yang lulus tepat waktu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kelulusan tepat waktu mahasiswa serta membangun model prediksi menggunakan metode regresi linear berganda. Metode ini dipilih karena mampu menganalisis pengaruh simultan beberapa variabel independen numerik terhadap satu variabel dependen, sehingga sesuai untuk mengkaji hubungan kompleks antar faktor yang memengaruhi kelulusan mahasiswa. Variabel independen yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini meliputi IPK, penghasilan orangtua, dan pekerjaan sambilan mahasiswa dengan kelulusan mahasiswa sebagai variabel dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penghasilan orangtua dan pekerjaan sambilan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap kelulusan tepat waktu, sedangkan IPK justru memiliki pengaruh negatif. Model yang dibangun memiliki nilai R² sebesar 0,6153 dan standar error 4,0653, menandakan model cukup kuat dan akurat. Temuan ini merekomendasikan Universitas Royal untuk memperkuat sistem monitoring akademik dan mendukung mahasiswa yang bekerja, serta merancang kebijakan berbasis kondisi sosial-ekonomi mahasiswa guna meningkatkan angka kelulusan tepat waktu.Kata kunci: kelulusan tepat waktu; mahasiswa; regresi linear berganda.