Faktor Ekonomi Kunci yang Memengaruhi Dinamika Kemiskinandi Kawasan Perbatasan Indonesia-Timor Leste (Key Economic Factors Influencing Poverty Dynamics in theIndonesia-Timor Leste Border Region) - Frederic Nalle (Perum BULOG, 2025)
Kemiskinan dan kerentanan pangan masih menjadi tantangan pembangunan utama di kawasan perbatasan, khususnya di wilayah dengan keterbatasan infrastruktur, dominasi pekerjaan informal, dan sistem pertanian lahan kering yang rentan terhadap perubahan iklim. Dalam konteks tersebut, penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pendapatan per kapita, tingkat pengangguran, dan produksi padi terhadap dinamika kemiskinan di empat kabupaten perbatasan Indonesia–Timor Leste (Kupang, Timor Tengah Utara, Belu, dan Malaka) selama periode 2015–2024. Dengan menggunakan regresi panel Fixed Effect Model (FEM), hasil penelitianmenunjukkan bahwa pendapatan per kapita berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, meskipun pengaruhnya relatif kecil, sementara pengangguran dan produksi padi tidak signifikan. Temuan penelitian menunjukkan adanya keterputusan pertumbuhan–kemiskinan (growth-poverty disconnect) di kawasan perbatasan, di mana peningkatan pendapatan belum sepenuhnya diikuti oleh penurunan kemiskinan akibat dominasi pekerjaan informal berproduktivitas rendah dan keterbatasan sistem pertanian lahan kering. Implikasi kebijakan menegaskan perlunya pendekatan pembangunan berbasis karakteristik wilayah (territorial differentiation) melalui pemerataan distribusi pendapatan, penciptaan lapangan kerja layak (decent work), serta penguatan ketahanan pangan berbasis diversifikasi pangan lokal, adopsi teknologi adaptif iklim, dan penguatan kelembagaan pasar. Dengan demikian, pembangunan kawasan perbatasan diharapkan tidak hanya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi juga menurunkan kemiskinan dan memperkuat ketahananpangan secara lebih inklusif dan berkelanjutan. Poverty and food vulnerability remain significant development challenges in border regions, particularly in areas characterized by limited infrastructure, the dominance of informal employment, and dryland agricultural systems that are highly vulnerable to climate variability. In this context, this study examined the effects of per capita income, the open unemployment rate, and rice production on poverty dynamics across four Indonesian Timor–Leste border districts (Kupang, North Central Timor, Belu, and Malaka) over the period 2015–2024. Using a panel regression with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM), the results indicated that per capita income had a statistically significant, adverse effect on poverty. However, the magnitude of this effect was relatively small, whereas unemployment and rice production were not statistically significant. The findings revealed a growth–poverty disconnect in border regions, where income growth had not been fully translated into poverty reduction due to the prevalence of low-productivity informal employment and structural constraints in dryland agricultural systems. Policy implications underscore the importance of a territorially differentiated development approach, emphasizing a more equitable distribution of income gains, the expansion of decent work, and the strengthening of food security through local food diversification, the adoption of climate-adaptive technologies, and the reinforcement of market institutions. Accordingly, development strategies in border regions are expected not only to stimulate economic growth but also to reduce poverty and enhance food security in more inclusive and sustainable ways.