Analysis of the Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Net Sugar Exports in Indonesia: ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP NET EKSPOR GULA DI INDONESIA - Afdal; Nelvia Iryani (Green Engineering Society, 2026)
Abstract. Fluctuations in Indonesia’s sugar net exports indicate a high dependence on sugar imports amid national macroeconomic dynamics. This study aims to analyze the influence of exchange rates, inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and domestic sugar prices on Indonesia’s sugar net exports using monthly time series data from 2017–2024 obtained from Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, the World Bank, and UN Comtrade. This study employs a quantitative method using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short run, the exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect on sugar net exports, while simultaneously all variables significantly affect sugar net exports. In the long run, the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have a negative but insignificant effect, inflation has a positive but insignificant effect, while domestic sugar prices have a negative and significant effect on sugar net exports. The findings indicate that domestic sugar prices are the most influential factor affecting Indonesia’s sugar net exports in the long run. Abstrak. Fluktuasi net ekspor gula di Indonesia menunjukkan tingginya ketergantungan terhadap impor gula di tengah dinamika makroekonomi nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar, inflasi, cadangan devisa, dan harga gula terhadap net ekspor gula di Indonesia menggunakan data time series bulanan periode 2017–2024 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, World Bank, dan UN Comtrade. Penelitian menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan teknik analisis Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif namun tidak signifikan terhadap net ekspor gula, sedangkan secara simultan seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan. Dalam jangka panjang, nilai tukar dan cadangan devisa berpengaruh negatif namun tidak signifikan, inflasi berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan, sedangkan harga gula berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap net ekspor gula. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga gula domestik menjadi faktor yang paling memengaruhi net ekspor gula Indonesia dalam jangka panjang.