DAMPAK PENURUNAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA - Tri Wibowo (Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia, 2013)
Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak penurunan ekspor terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja dengan menggunakan analisis multiplier tenaga kerja dari tabel input-output. Hasil analisis secara sektoral menunjukkan bahwa pada saat terjadi penurunan ekspor di sektor industri sebesar 4,9% dan sektor pertambangan sebesar 9,6% akan berdampak terhadap hilangnya kesempatan kerja, meskipun terjadi kenaikan ekspor di sektor pertanian sebesar 8%. Pangsa kesempatan kerja di sektor pertanian pada periode 2006–2008 sebesar 41,2%, mengalami penurunan menjadi 38% pada periode 2009–2011. Kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa telah terjadi pergeseran tenaga kerja sektor pertanian ke non pertanian, khususnya industri dan jasa. Peningkatan teknologi di sektor pertanian akan meningkatkan produktivitas, daya tarik sektor tersebut, dan mengurangi tingginya migrasi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian ke sektor lain. This article aims to figure out the impact of decreasing export against employment opportunity by using labor multiplier analysis from input-output table. Sectoral analysis shows that decreasing export in industrial sector creates a large loss of employment opportunities not only in the respective sector, but also in other sectors such as agriculture and trade. From the period of 2011 to 2012, an 8% decreased in agricultural exports together with a 9.6% and a 4.9% decreased in mining and industrial sectors respectively, created unemployment. Labor market share in agricultural sector in the period of 2006-2008 was 41.2% and then it decreased to 38% in the period of 2009 - 2011. This indicates that there was a shift of labor from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors, especially industry and services. The advancement of technology in agricultural sector could increase the productivity, attractiveness, and reduce the shift of workers from agricultural sector to the others.