DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA - Muhammad Afdi Nizar (Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia, 2012)
Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia periode tahun 2000–2011. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan dan model VAR, studi ini menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi, uang beredar, nilai tukar riil, dan suku bunga. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia: (i) berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 3 bulan (satu kuartal), (ii) mendorong laju inflasi domestik selama satu tahun, (iii) meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar di dalam negeri; penambahan jumlah uang beredar berlangsung selama 5 bulan, (iv) berdampak negatif terhadap nilai tukar riil rupiah selama 10 bulan dan (v) menyebabkan naiknya suku bunga di dalam negeri (efek ini berlangsung selama 10 bulan). Oleh karena itu, pemerintah perlu menempuh langkah-langkah yang bisa mentransformasikan kebiasaan masyarakat yang semula boros BBM menjadi hemat BBM. Selain itu, dibutuhkan kebijakan yang mendorong pengembangan energi alternatif. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shocks in the world markets on the economy of Indonesia during 2000–2011. Based on monthly time series data and using VAR model, the study tries to analyze effects of oil price shocks to economic growth, inflation rates, money supply, real exchange rates and interest rates. The results show several conclusions: (i) the oil price shocks in the world market have a positive impact on quarterly economic growth; (ii) it also pushes up the domestic inflation rate for a year; (iii) it increases the domestic money supply which lasts for 5 months; (iv) it negatively affects the real exchange rate of Rupiah for 10 months and (v) it leads to rising domestic interest rates (the effect of oil shocks on interest rates lasted for 10 months). Therefore, government needs to take steps that could transform the people habits of fuel uses from wasteful to the efficient one. In addition, the alternative energy development also needs to promoted.