ANALISIS HUBUNGAN HARGA TIMAH BKDI DAN LME SERTA KEBIJAKAN EKSPOR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR TIMAH INDONESIA - Hasni Hasni (Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia, 2015)
Timah merupakan bahan tambang yang tidak terbarukan. Indonesia menempati peringkat kedua sebagai produsen bijih timah terbesar dunia. Sejak 30 Agustus 2013, ekspor timah Indonesia harus melalui mekanisme transaksi di Bursa Komoditi dan Derivatif Indonesia (BKDI). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara harga timah BKDI dan harga timah di London Metal Exchange (LME) serta kebijakan ekspor terhadap kinerja ekspor timah Indonesia. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder dari BKDI, LME, Asian Metal dan BPS. Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan metode Granger causality menunjukkan bahwa setelah satu tahun penerapan ekspor timah melalui BKDI, harga timah BKDI dipengaruhi oleh harga timah LME pada rentang waktu satu hari kerja. Dari sisi penerimaan ekspor, kebijakan ekspor melalui BKDI dapat meningkatkan nilai ekspor timah bulanan ke Singapura. Pemerintah harus melanjutkan kebijakan ekspor timah yakni ekspor melalui Bursa Komoditi dan Derivatif Indonesia untuk mencegah ekspor timah ilegal dan meningkatkan daya saing serta nilai tambah produk timah ekspor Indonesia. Tin is a non-renewable mineral. Indonesia is the second largest producer of tin ore in the world. Since August 30 2013, Indonesian tin export has been done through The Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) transaction mechanism. This study aims to analyze the relationship between ICDX’s tin price and the London Metal Exchange (LME) price as well as the effect of tin export mechanism through ICDX on the Indonesia’s tin export performance. The secondary data were taken from BKDI, LME, Asian Metal and BPS. The results showed that using Granger causality analysis, after one year the policy is being implemented, there is a relationship between ICDX’s tin price and LME price on one (working days) time lag. Tin export policy through ICDX mechanism can increase the value of monthly tin exports to Singapore, therefore it increases the export earning. The government needs to continue the tin export policy through the ICDX to prevent illegal tin export as well as to strenghten the competitiveness and value added of Indonesian tin export.