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All Journal Agromet Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa
Wiratmo, Joko
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Propagation Characteristics of Madden Julian Oscillation in the Indonesian Maritime Continent: Case Studies for 2020-2022 Istiqomah, Fadhilatul; Yulihastin, Erma; Wiratmo, Joko; Hermawan, Eddy; Trilaksono, Nurjanna Joko; Irawan, Dasapta Erwin; Yohanes, Kristy Natasha; Ayunina, Amalia Qurrotu
Agromet Vol. 38 No. 1 (2024): JUNE 2024
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.38.1.1-12

Abstract

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can affect weather and climate variability in the Indonesian Maritime Continent. MJO propagation is not always the same, previous research has classified MJO into 4 categories: slow, fast, stand, and jump. The objective of this study is to investigate the differences in MJO propagation and the factors that impact it. Daily data for variables such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), zonal wind, and sea surface temperature are utilized in this research. The collected data is processed using composite methods based on the 8 MJO phases, with a specific focus on the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The research findings suggest that warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and zonal winds dominated by Kelvin waves are favorable for MJO propagation. Conversely, cooling sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and zonal winds dominated by equatorial Rossby waves can hinder MJO propagation. Future researchers are expected to examine the impact of MJO propagation during extreme rainfall occurrences in several regions of Indonesia, as well as the application of machine learning and deep learning methods to predict MJO propagation in the future.
ENSO and IOD Influence on Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia: Historical and Future Analysis Hanifa, Risyda; Wiratmo, Joko
Agromet Vol. 38 No. 2 (2024): DECEMBER 2024
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.38.2.78-87

Abstract

Indonesia, as a maritime continent, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods and landslides due to extreme rainfall. This study aims to identify changes in the influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall across Indonesia, specifically during the September-October-November period. We used rainfall and sea surface temperature data from the CMIP6 climate model for the historical period (1985-2014), near-future (2031-2060), and far-future (2061-2090) projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 climate scenarios. The relation between rainfall dan ENSO/IOD was simply defined by linear regression approach. We analyzed the change of influence by comparing the historical and the future condition. The results indicated that the changes in the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to extreme rainfall in future is consistently negative, except for Java (near-future) and Kalimantan and southern Sumatra (far-future). Our finding revealed that significant changes in the teleconnection varied throughout maritime continent. The maximum change was found in Northern Kalimantan, which reached values of -80 mm/°C due to ENSO and -180 mm/°C due to IOD for near future. These findings highlight the spatial variability in teleconnection changes across Indonesia, underscoring the need for region-specific climate adaptation measures in response to evolving extreme rainfall patterns.
Co-Authors Ayunina, Amalia Qurrotu Dasapta Erwin Irawan Dasapta Erwin Irawan, Dasapta Erwin Eddy Hermawan Hanifa, Risyda Istiqomah, Fadhilatul Siregar, Plato Martuani Sulistyawati, Endah Trilaksono, Nurjanna Joko Yohanes, Kristy Natasha Yulihastin, Erma