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Ali Naderan
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

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Journal : Civil Engineering Journal

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Multi-Level Crash Prediction Models Considering Influence of Adjacent Zonal Attributes Nemat Soltani; Mahmoud Saffarzadeh; Ali Naderan
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 5, No 3 (2019): March
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (984.159 KB) | DOI: 10.28991/cej-2019-03091276

Abstract

This study investigates factors affecting accidents across transport facilities and modes, using micro and macro levels variables simultaneously while accounting for the influence of adjacent zones on the accidents occurrence in a zone. To this end, 15968 accidents in 96 traffic analysis zones of Tehran were analyzed. Adverting to the multi-level structure of accidents data, the present study adopts a multilevel model for its modeling processes. The effects of the adjacent zones on the accidents which have occurred in one zone were assessed using the independent variables obtained from the zones adjacent to that specific zone. A Negative Binomial (NB) model was also developed, and results show that the multilevel model that considers the effect of adjacent zones shows a better performance compared to the multilevel model that does not consider the adjacent zones’ effect and NB model. Moreover, the final models show that at intersections and road segments, the significant independent variables are different for each mode of transport. Adopting a comprehensive approach to incorporate a multi-level, multi-resolution (micro/macro) model accounting for adjacent zones’ influence on multi-mode, multi-segment accidents is the contribution of this paper to accident studies.
Co-Authors Mahmoud Saffarzadeh Nemat Soltani