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All Journal Civil Engineering Journal
S. M. Al-Jawari
Urban Planning Department, Faculty of Physical Planning, University of Kufa, Kufa,
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

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Journal : Civil Engineering Journal

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Prediction of Urban Spatial Changes Pattern Using Markov Chain N. AbdulRazak Hasach Albasri; S. M. Al-Jawari; O. Jassim Al-Mosherefawi
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 8, No 4 (2022): April
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-04-07

Abstract

Urban land uses of all kinds are the constituent elements of the urban spatial structure. Because of the influence of economic and social factors, cities in general are characterized by the dynamic state of their elements over time. Urban functions occur in a certain way with different spatial patterns. Hence, urban planners and the relevant urban management teams should understand the future spatial pattern of these changes by resorting to quantitative models in spatial planning. This is to ensure that future predictions are made with a high level of accuracy so that appropriate strategies can be used to address the problems arising from such changes. The Markov chain method is one of the quantitative models used in spatial planning to analyze time series based on current values to predict the series values in the future without relying on the past or historical values of the studied series. The research questions in this study are formulated thus: What are the trends in the patterns of urban land use functions in Al-Najaf, Iraq, between 2005 to 2015? How can the values of the changes be predicted for the year 2025? The hypothesis is based on the increasing spatial functional change of land use patterns in the city during the study period due to various economic and social factors. Making accurate predictions of the size of spatial changes motivates this study as a guide to urban management towards developing possible solutions to address the effects of this change, as well as the need to understand its causes and future upward trends. The contribution of this article is the presented outlook for spatial functions for the next 10 years. The computations using the Markov chain model will enable management to understand future relations and develop appropriate policies to reduce the hazards of unplanned changes in the city. Results show that residential posts, slums, and commercial activities are getting worse, while change values for industrial functions and other things are going down. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-04-07 Full Text: PDF
Using CRF Tool for Analyzing the Resilience of Cities S. M. Al-Jawari; N. AbdulRazak Hasach Albasri; O. Jassim Al-Mosherefawi
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 8, No 10 (2022): October
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-10-013

Abstract

The new sustainable development goals set by the UN include a goal of making cities inclusive, safe, sustainable, and resilient. Cities are growing at huge rates, and conditions of deteriorating QOL̛s are increasing in the form of poor access to services, and slums are remarkable, especially in the cities of the Middle East; hence, the research problem can arise from a lack of knowledge regarding the in determination of a way to assess the resilience of cities to develop mechanisms that will improve the quality of urban life. In this study, a tool called CRF has been applied for the assessment of the city's resilience principles of health and quality of life, economics and social, infrastructure and environmental systems, and the principles of governance and strategic leadership. The research aims to determine the efficiency of Kufa City in achieving the principles of resilience according to the CRF. The research is based on the descriptive analytical method. The research concluded that the city of Kufa achieves low levels of some indicators of resilience, especially on the imposition of security and the rule of law, transportation, and communications, and achieves reasonable rates of resilience regarding opportunities for creating a sustainable economy and achieving basic needs. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-10-013 Full Text: PDF
Co-Authors N. AbdulRazak Hasach Albasri O. Jassim Al-Mosherefawi