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All Journal Media Statistika Jurnal Gaussian Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Gunardi .
Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Other

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Journal : Media Statistika

 1 
PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) Herni Utami; Yunita Wulan Sari; Subanar Subanar; Abdurakhman Abdurakhman; Gunardi Gunardi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 2 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (740.583 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225

Abstract

This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
RANCANGAN D-OPTIMAL UNTUK MODEL EKSPONENSIAL GENERAL Tatik Widiharih; Sri Haryatmi; Gunardi Gunardi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 7, No 2 (2014): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (457.702 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.7.2.71-76

Abstract

Exponential model is widely used in biology, chemistry, pharmacokinetics and microbiology. D-optimal criteria is criteria with the purpuse to minimize the variance of  the estimator of parameters in the model. In this paper will discuss the D-optimal design for the generalized exponential model with  homoscedastics  errore assumtion. We used minimally supported design with the proportion of  each design point is uniform. The optimization is used  modified Newton, and the results obtained that the  design points are  interior points of the design region. Keywords: D-Optimal, Generalized Exponential, Minimally Supported Design, Support Point, Homoscedastics
Co-Authors Abdurakhman Abdurakhman Diah Safitri Herni Utami Nanang Susyanto Rika Fitriani Sri Haryatmi Subanar Subanar Tatik Widiharih winita Sulandari Yunita Wulan Sari