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Ersa Salsa Bilaffayza

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Author-ID : 6284058

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Forecasting Demand of Moving Average and Linier Regression Methods in Predicting the Production of K93 Disc Brake Product (Case Study of PT United Steel Center Indonesia) Ersa Salsa Bilaffayza; Wahyudin Wahyudin; Dene Herwanto
Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri (JRSI) Vol 10 No 01 (2023): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri - Juni 2023
Publisher : School of Industrial and System Engineering, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jrsi.v10i01.590

PT United Steel Center Indonesia merupakan perusahaan industri manufaktur yaitu industri plat baja. Perusahaan memproduksi berbagai macam produk plat baja dan memiliki berbagai plant, salah satunya adalah produk Disc Brake K93. Produk Disc Brake K93 merupakan permintaan part dari customer terbesar yang seringkali mengalami perubahan cukup signifikan, sehingga terjadinya fluktuasi dan menjadikan persediaan menumpuk dalam gudang. Persediaan yang menumpuk dapat menyebabkan kerugian bagi perusahaan dikarenakan pemborosan yang tidak tepat sesuai perencanaan, persediaan yang kurang pun dapat menyebabkan kerugian perusahaan yaitu terjadinya keterlambatan pengiriman kepada customer. Peramalan merupakan salah satu metode dalam perencanaan untuk memprediksi dan membantu dalam menarik kesimpulan. Metode Moving Average dan Linier Regression merupakan metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian, dan dilakukan analisis tingkat akurasi menggunakan konsistensi MAD, MSE, dan MAPE serta validasi peramalan dengan Tracking Signal. Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan dan analisis diperoleh metode linier regression merupakan metode yang lebih akurat dalam meramalkan produk Disc Brake K93 periode 2022 dengan kenaikan produksi tiap bulannya, nilai MAD sebesar 15242,23, MSE sebesar 371649700, MAPE sebesar 0,201, dan Tracking Signal bernilai 0.

Forecasting Demand of Moving Average and Linier Regression Methods in Predicting the Production of K93 Disc Brake Product (Case Study of PT United Steel Center Indonesia) Ersa Salsa Bilaffayza; Wahyudin Wahyudin; Dene Herwanto
Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri Vol 10 No 01 (2023): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri
Publisher : School of Industrial and System Engineering, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jrsi.v10i01.590

PT United Steel Center Indonesia is a manufacturing company engaged in the steel plate industry. Thecompany produces various kinds of steel plate products and has various plants, one of which is the DiscBrake K93 product. The Disc Brake K93 product is a part request from the largest customer which oftenexperiences significant changes, resulting in fluctuations and causing inventory to accumulate in thewarehouse. Inventories that accumulate can cause losses for the company, due to improper waste accordingto planning, even less inventory can cause losses for the company because it can experience delays indelivery to customers. Forecasting is one method in planning to predict and help draw conclusions.Moving Average and Linier Regression methods are used in this study, and an analysis of the level ofaccuracy is carried out using the concistency of MAD, MSE, and MAPE as well as forecasting validationwith Tracking Signal. Based on the results of processing and analysis, it is found that the linear regressionmethod is the most accurate method in predicting Disc Brake K93 products for the 2022 period with anincrease in production each month, the MAD value is 15242.23, MSE is 371649700, MAPE is 0.201, andthe Tracking Signal is 0.

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