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All Journal JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) East Java Economic Journal
Syamad
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Journal : East Java Economic Journal

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Is There J-Curve Phenomenon and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in East Java? Pertiwi, Rizki; Syamad
East Java Economic Journal Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Jawa Timur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53572/ejavec.v8i1.125

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate asymmetry on the trade balance between East Java Province and the largest trading partner countries (China, Japan, and the United States) in the short-run and long-run and to detect the J-Curve phenomenon. This study uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (NARDL) method with 2010Q1 - 2023Q1 time-series data. The results of the study show that in the short-run, both the appreciation (NEG) and depreciation (POS) of the exchange rate have no effect on East Java's trade balance in all models. However, in the long-run, exchange rate appreciation and depreciation have a significant negative effect on East Java's trade balance across all models. Based on the estimation results, it can be concluded that there is no J-Curve phenomenon in East Java's trade balance with trading partner countries. Because in the asymmetry model, the J-Curve phenomenon can occur if depreciation or appreciation has a significant positive effect and is cointegrated in the long-run, regardless of the short-run coefficient being positive or negative and significant or not significant. From these conditions, it can be concluded that the trade industry in East Java is called inelastic. That is, price changes do not affect demand for export and import volumes. Therefore, the policy of depreciating the Rupiah exchange rate is not the best strategy to be implemented as an export promotion for East Java because only a few sectors benefit.
Oil Price Fluctuations and Job Creation Sectors in East Java Province: Testing for Non-Linearity Devina Audrey Subagya; Syamad
East Java Economic Journal Vol. 8 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Jawa Timur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53572/ejavec.v8i2.136

Abstract

This research intends to trace the effects of fluctuations in Brent and WTI oil prices on the job creation sector of East Java Province. The GARCH (1,1) method is used to track the value of oil price fluctuations and the NARDL method is used to find the magnitude of the asymmetric effects. Data in the form of quarterly time series 2011Q1-2022Q4 is also used in this research. The results of the asymmetric test show that there is a significant positive influence between negative fluctuations in Brent and WTI oil prices on the job creation sector in the short-run and there is a significant negative influence between positive fluctuations in Brent and WTI oil prices in the long-run. The test results have contributed to a more complex theoretical study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the business sector at the provincial level. The test results have produced effective recommendations for stakeholders in East Java Province, namely policymakers and business actors who need to create and use new alternative fuels in production activities. For example, using domestic oil or renewable energy so that it can reduce dependence on international oil price movements. Policymakers can also implement international oil import tariffs and quotas to curb its use.
Co-Authors Devina Audrey Subagya Pertiwi, Rizki Rossanto Dwi Handoyo