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All Journal Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Jurnal Ekonomi, Teknologi dan Bisnis
Muhammad, Aliyu
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Religion Arts Humanities Astronomy Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences

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Journal : Jurnal Ekonomi, Teknologi dan Bisnis

 1 
Financing Economic Development in the Face of Fiscal Constraints: Fiscal Sustainability Measures and Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria Muhammad, Aliyu
Jurnal Ekonomi Teknologi dan Bisnis (JETBIS) Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): JETBIS : Journal of Economics, Technology and Business
Publisher : Al-Makki Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57185/jetbis.v4i1.172

Abstract

This study explores the effect of fiscal sustainability measures on inflation in Nigeria, given the fiscal challenges facing the country. The objective of the study is to analyze how fiscal sustainability measures, such as debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service-to-income ratio, affect inflation. The methodology used includes analysis of annual data from 1980 to 2020 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and impulse response function. The results show that debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service-to-export ratio have a significant negative effect on inflation, while debt service-to-income ratio, debt-to-export ratio, and exchange rate have a significant positive effect. This study also finds that inflation responds negatively to shocks from the debt-to-GDP ratio, debt service to exports, and exchange rate, while responding positively to shocks from the debt service to income ratio and debt service to exports ratio. In conclusion, it is important for the debt management office and the ministry of finance to reduce the debt service-to-income ratio and improve fiscal sustainability policies to stabilize inflation in Nigeria.
Financing Economic Development in the Face of Fiscal Constraints: Fiscal Sustainability Measures and Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria Muhammad, Aliyu
Jurnal Ekonomi Teknologi dan Bisnis (JETBIS) Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi, Teknologi dan Bisnis
Publisher : Al-Makki Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57185/jetbis.v4i1.172

Abstract

This study explores the effect of fiscal sustainability measures on inflation in Nigeria, given the fiscal challenges facing the country. The objective of the study is to analyze how fiscal sustainability measures, such as debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service-to-income ratio, affect inflation. The methodology used includes analysis of annual data from 1980 to 2020 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and impulse response function. The results show that debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service-to-export ratio have a significant negative effect on inflation, while debt service-to-income ratio, debt-to-export ratio, and exchange rate have a significant positive effect. This study also finds that inflation responds negatively to shocks from the debt-to-GDP ratio, debt service to exports, and exchange rate, while responding positively to shocks from the debt service to income ratio and debt service to exports ratio. In conclusion, it is important for the debt management office and the ministry of finance to reduce the debt service-to-income ratio and improve fiscal sustainability policies to stabilize inflation in Nigeria.
Co-Authors Adeogun, Folusho Maiwada, Abdullahi Aliyu