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All Journal Harmoni Sosial : Jurnal Pengabdian Dan Solidaritas Masyarakat Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics
Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics

 1 
Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth Sihite, Lestari; Yosie Gabriela Panjaitan; Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Sutejo Perangin Angin; Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung
Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/efficient.v9i1.40810

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the combination of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in North Sumatera Province using time series data for the period 2010-2024. The analysis was conducted using VAR method and forecasting. The result show that local government spending and Local Own-Source Revenue contribute positively and significantly to economic growth. Conversely, inflation has a negative and significant impact on economic growth. These findings confirm that local fiscal instruments are the main drivers of the economy. On the other hand, General Allocation Funds and the BI Rate are not proven to have a significant effect on economic growth. No flypaper effect was found, because Local Own-Source Revenue plays a greater role in driving RGDP than General Allocation Funds, indicating that North Sumatra's economic performance is more supported by its internal potential. For the Policy Mix, a combination of expansive and productive fiscal policies with stable and accommodative monetary policies is most effective. While local governments support growth, BI stabilizes and provides a favorable economic environment.
Reformulating Indonesia’s Development Paradigm toward Sustainable Prosperity Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung
Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/efficient.v9i1.40626

Abstract

This study reexamines Indonesia’s development paradigm with a focus on achieving sustainable welfare. Employing a dynamic panel data approach, the analysis investigates the effects of social, economic, and environmental dimensions on sustainable welfare proxied by the Gini ratio across 34 provinces over the 2019–2024 period. To address endogeneity concerns and capture dynamic relationships, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is applied. The estimation results from the FDGMM, SYSGMM, and DPGMM models satisfy the criteria of validity, consistency, and unbiasedness. Overall, the findings indicate that the explanatory variables in all three models exert a strong, negative, and statistically significant effect on inequality reduction, thereby enhancing sustainable welfare. However, per capita income exhibits a positive yet statistically insignificant impact on welfare in both the short and long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends a reformulation of Indonesia’s development paradigm toward sustainable welfare by positioning the Human Development Index (HDI) as the core foundation of development and structural reform. The results underscore the need for policy innovation that prioritizes HDI-based development, accelerates structural transformation, and promotes green job creation. Ultimately, progressive, inclusive, and consistent policy design is essential for achieving sustainable wellbeing, with a strong emphasis on equity and long-term sustainability
Co-Authors Ayu Angelina Pasaribu Fajar Solidman Larosa Lestari Sihite Sihite, Lestari Sutejo Perangin Angin Yosie Gabriela Panjaitan