Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri
Vol. 8 No. 2 (2006): DECEMBER 2006

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Subanar Subanar (Mathematics Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia)
Suhartono Suhartono (Statistics Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Feb 2007

Abstract

Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN) community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

Copyrights © 2006






Journal Info

Abbrev

ind

Publisher

Subject

Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

Description

Jurnal Teknik Industri aims to: Promote a comprehensive approach to the application of industrial engineering in industries as well as incorporating viewpoints of different disciplines in industrial engineering. Strengthen academic exchange with other institutions. Encourage scientist, practicing ...