JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI
Vol. 16 No. 2 (2020): JMSK, JANUARY, 2020

Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) Menggunakan Metode Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smothing dan Box Jenkins

IKA MEIZA MAHARANI (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
ACHMAD FAUZAN (UNIVERSITAS ISLAM INDONESIA)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Dec 2019

Abstract

One of Indonesia's significant results is oil palm. The reality of this plantation is not only owned by the government (BUMN) but also the private sector. Every period, the company does forecasting in terms of production, especially for the next period. Among them is to set production targets, company operations, and financial planning. Based on this, a study was conducted with the aim to predict the amount of palm kernel oil (PKO) production at PT. Mitra Mendawai Sejati for the next six (6) months. The method used is Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing and Box Jenkins. While the data used is historical data from the amount of palm kernel oil production for five (5) years obtained from the company. Based on the results of the study, received the forecast value of the Suayap output in 2019 with the best method, namely the Double Exponential Smoothing method. Based on the forecast we got in January at 949181.5 Kg, February at 963505.8 Kg, March at 977830.1 Kg, April at 992154.4 Kg, May at 1006478.6 Kg and June 1020802.9 Kg with MSE value of 47031163817, and RMSE of 216866.7 and parameter values (optimum weighting) for α = 0.616667 and β = 0.1548939

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jmsk

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal ini mempublikasikan paper-paper original hasil-hasil penelitian dibidang Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi ...