APLIKASI METODE MOMEN PROBABILITAS TERBOBOTI UNTUK ESTIMASI PARAMETER DISTRIBUSI PARETO TERAMPAT PADA DATA CURAH HUJAN (Studi Kasus : Data Curah Hujan di Kota Semarang Tahun 2004-2013)

Rengganis Purwakinanti
Agus Rusgiyono
Alan Prahutama

Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian

The method used to analyze the extreme rainfall is Extreme Value Theory (EVT). One of the approaches in the EVT is Peak Over Threshold (POT) which follows the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The shape and scale parameter estimates obtained using the method of probability weighted moment. The results of this research were presumptive maximum value within a period of 1 year to the period 2004 to 2013 showed that year 2009/2010 has the possibility of extreme value compared with other years. Also obtained Mean Absolute Percentage Error values ( MAPE ) of 33.19 %. This result is a big difference because the MAPE values above 10 %, thus allowing the emergence of extreme values. Keywords: Rainfall, Extreme Value Theory, Peak Over Threshold, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Probability Weighted Moment