Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 8, No 1 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian

PERAMALAN PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO (PDB) SEKTOR PERTANIAN, KEHUTANAN, DAN ‎PERIKANAN MENGGUNAKAN SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

Desy Tresnowati Hardi (Departemen Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro)
Diah Safitri (Departemen Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro)
Agus Rusgiyono (Departemen Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2019

Abstract

Forecasting is the process of estimating conditions in the future by testing conditions from the past. One of the forecasting methods is Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which aim of SSA is to make a decomposition of the original series into the sum of a small number of independent and interpretable components such as a slowly varying trend, oscillatory components and a structureless noise. Gross Domestic Product data in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector are time series data with trend and seasonal pattern so that it can be processed using the SSA method. The forecasting process of SSA method uses the main parameter (L) of 21 obtained by the Blind Source Separation (BSS) method. From forecasting, acquired group of 3 groups. Forecasting resulted the value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 1.59% and the value of tracking signal is 2.50, which indicates that the results of forecasting is accurate. Keywords: Forecasting, Gross Domestic Product in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...