Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 2, No 4 (2013): Jurnal Gaussian

METODE PERAMALAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL VOLATILITAS ASYMMETRIC POWER ARCH (APARCH)

Cindy Wahyu Elvitra (Unknown)
Budi Warsito (Unknown)
Abdul Hoyyi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 Oct 2013

Abstract

Exchange rate can be defined as a ratio the value of currency. The exchange rate shows a currency price, if it exchanged with another currency. Exchange rates of a currency fluctuate all the time. Rise and fall exchange rates of a currency in the money market shows the magnitude of volatility occurred in a country currency to other's. To estimate the volatility behavior of the data gave rise to volatility clustering or heteroscedasticity problems, can’t be modeled using ARMA model and asymmetric effects that can‘t be modeled by ARCH or GARCH, can be modeled by Asymmetric Power ARCH (APARCH). In determining the estimated parameter values of APARCH model, used the maximum likelihood method, followed by using the iteration method is Berndt, Hall, Hall and Hausman (BHHH). The APARCH model used to the data return of exchange rate against dollar is APARCH(2,1) or in the form as follows :  = 0,00000268 + 0,830902 + 0,130516  + 0,074784  + 0,151157

Copyrights © 2013






Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...