Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 8, No 4 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian

VALUE AT RISK PADA PORTOFOLIO SAHAM DENGAN COPULA ALI-MIKHAIL-HAQ

Delsy Nurutsaniyah (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Tatik Widiharih (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)
Di Asih I Maruddani (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Nov 2019

Abstract

Investment is one alternative to increase assets in the future. Investors can invest in a portfolio to reduce the level of risk. Value at Risk (VaR) is a measuring tool that can calculate the worst loss over a given time period at a given confidence level. GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) is used to model data with high volatility. The teory of copula is a powerful tool for modeling joint distribution for any marginal distributions. Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula from Archimedean copula family can be applied to data with dependencies τ between -0.1817 to 0.3333. This research uses Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula with a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate a bivariate portfolio VaR from a combination stocks of PT Pembangunan Perumahan Tbk. (PTPP), PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk. (BBTN), and PT Jasa Marga Tbk. (JSMR) in the period of March 3, 2014 - March 1, 2019. The results of VaR calculation on bivariate portfolio for next 1 day period obtained the lowest VaR is owned by bivariate portfolio between PTPP and JSMR with a weight of 30% and 70% at confidence level of 99%, 95%, and 90% respectively are 4.014%, 2.545%, and 1.876%.Keywords: Value at Risk, GARCH, Ali-Mikhail-Haq Copula, Monte Carlo

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...