Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam
Vol. 5 No. 2 (2019): JULY-DECEMBER 2019

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

Angga Khoerul Umam (Universitas Airlangga)
Ririn Tri Ratnasari (Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Airlangga)
Sri Herianingrum (Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Airlangga)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2019

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production index, SBIS and inflation on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. This study uses monthly data from May 2011 to December 2018. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causality between macroeconomic variables and the Indonesian Islamic stock index. Especially in the long run, industrial production index and inflation have a significant effect on ISSI, while the exchange rate, interest rates and SBIS have no significant effect on ISSI. IRF results show that the response of each variable and stable at different times. The ISSI response experienced a positive shock that occurred in the industrial production index and inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate, the Bungan rate and SBIS were responded negatively by ISSI.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JEBIS

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Journal of Economics and Business Islamic (JEBIS) accepts original manuscripts in the field of Islamics Economics, including research reports, case reports, application of theory, critical studies and literature reviews. The spread of Islamic Economics include: 1. Islamic Finance and Capital ...