EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis
VOLUME 18, ISSUE 2, August 2018

Forecasting The Exchange Rate (IDR) of US Dollar (USD) Using Locally Stationary Wavelet

Dina Tri Utari (Program Studi Statistika, FMIPA, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
17 Sep 2018

Abstract

Currency exchange rate of a country to the other countries is fluctuative. The movement of the exchange rate affects the country’s economy. The exchange rate can change any time according to the market mechanism, therefore currency exchange predictions is required to determine future economic policy. Based on the impact of exchange rate in economy fluctuations, an accurate model is needed to determine the exchange rate movements.In this case, the model is Locally Stationary Wavelet (LSW). This model combines stocastic process class based on wavelet non decimated. LSW model can catch most of the information in time series data. Based on the application of LSW mtehod on the data of the rupiah against the US dollar for the period April 2016 - March 2017, it can be concluded that model provides forecasting results approaching actual data therefore it can be used for forecasting exchange rates. The value of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 0,1201293%. 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

eksakta

Publisher

Subject

Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Materials Science & Nanotechnology

Description

Ekstakta is an interdisciplinary journal with the scope of mathematics and natural sciences that is published by Fakultas MIPA Universitas Islam Indonesia. All submitted papers should describe original, innovatory research, and modelling research indicating their basic idea for potential ...