Non-cash Payment Transaction Projection Using ARIMAX : Efect of Calendar

Muhammad Luthfi Setiarno Putera (Institut Agama Islam Negeri Palangka Raya)

JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI
Vol. 16 No. 3 (2020): JMSK, MAY, 2020

As the most Moslem country, economic activity in Indonesia is often parallel with the movement of Qamariah (lunar) calendar which is different with Gregorian calendar. Using calender variation, this research attempts to look for modified time series model for non-cash payment projection (forecast) aim. The result shows that calendar variation plays statistically significant role on non-cash payment, evidenced by significant payment in the month in which Eid Fitr occurs. The occurrence of Eid Fitr in the first and second week of the month is evidently characterized by increasing non-cash payment in one month earlier. The best model with highest accuracy for non-cash payment projection is ARIMAX(2,1,1) as it is able to capture the pattern, trend and fluctuation. It also suggests the peak of non-cash payment will be in December.