Media Statistika
Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika

PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM

Amam Taufiq Hidayat (Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Subanar Subanar (Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Jun 2020

Abstract

Geometric Brownian motion is one of the most widely used stock price model. One of the assumptions that is filled with stock return volatility is constant. Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process a model to describe volatility in finance. Additionally, Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by Background Driving Levy Process (BDLP) compound Poisson process and the marginal law of volatility follows a Gamma distribution. Barndorff-Nielsen and Shepard (BNS) Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model can to sample the process for the stock price with volatility follows Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Based on these, the simulation result are compared BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with geometric Brown motion for Standard and Poor (SP) 500 stock data. Simulation result give BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and Geometric Brownian motion a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are 0,13 and 0,24 respectively. These result indicate that the BNS Gamma  Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model gives a more accurate  than Geometric Brownian motion

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