<![CDATA[Informasi mengenai prakiraan musim hujan untuk menentukan awal musim hujan dan awal musim kemarau diperlukan dalam penentuan awal musim panen dan penyusunan pola tanam yang akan diterapkan di suatu lokasi berdasarkan pengamatan terhadap data pola cuaca dan pola curah hujan harian atau bulanan. Metode ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) digunakan sebagai alat untuk menguji kehandalan data yang diperoleh. Nilai prakiraan, dalam penelitian ini diperoleh berdasarkan data curah hujan di stasiun curah hujan Karawang tahun 1971-2007, dan data indeks Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dari BMKG (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa nilai prakiraan awal musim hujan maju atau mundur dapat dihitung cukup baik dengan potensi proposional, di mana kurva hasil prakiraan musim hujan maju lebih baik daripada prakiraan musim hujan mundur. Kata Kunci: Evaluasi, nilai prakiraan, karakteristika operasi relatif (ROC) Information for predicting rainy season in the determination of rainy and dry seasons is required in determining the beginning of harvesting time and in arranging what plant pattern would be applied and developed in a certain location. The prediction is based on climate pattern as well as on daily or monthly rainfall pattern observation. ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) method was used as a mean to test the reliability of the data obtained. The predicted value in this research was based on data of Karawang’s rainfall station of 1971 up to 2007 and those of the index of sea surface temperature of BMKG (The Office of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysique). Result analysis showed that the forward or retreat values of the beginning of rainfall seasons could be sufficiently well calculated at a proportional potency where ROC curve obtained was at a level above normal and the result curve of forward rainfall prediction was better than that of the retreat curve.Keywords: Evaluation, Predicted value, relative operation characteristics (ROC)]]>
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