IPTEK Journal of Proceedings Series
No 1 (2015): 1st International Seminar on Science and Technology (ISST) 2015

Simulation Study of Parameter Estimation Two-Level GSTARX-GLS Model

Andria Prima Ditago (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya)
Suhartono Suhartono (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Jan 2016

Abstract

GSTAR is a special form of the VAR model and is one of the commonly used models for modeling and forecasting time series data and location. At GSTAR modeling, estimation method used is OLS, the method is considered to have a weakness, which will result in an inefficient estimator. Thus, one appropriate method is GLS. In this study, conducted modeling GSTARX two levels by adding a predictor of calendar variation model. Parameter estimation of the first level models made of predictors with a linear regression model, while the second level models using error models which is done on first level with GSTAR model. Calendar variation model discussed is the impact of Ramadhan effect. Results of the simulation study showed that GSTAR-GLS models produces a more efficient estimator than GSTAR-OLS, seen from the obtained standard error smaller.

Copyrights © 2015






Journal Info

Abbrev

jps

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

IPTEK Journal of Proceedings Series publishes is a journal that contains research work presented in conferences organized by Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember. ISSN: 2354-6026. The First publication in 2013 year from all of full paper in International Conference on Aplied Technology, Science, and ...