Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology
Vol. 2 No. 1 (2020): Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology (JoRMTT)

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Determine the Optimal Solution of Probabilistic Supply Cost

Helmi Ramadan (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia)
Prana Ugiana Gio (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia)
Elly Rosmaini (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 Feb 2020

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation is a probabilistic simulation where the solution of problem is given based on random process. The random process involves a probabilitydistribution from data variable collected based on historical data. The used model is probabilistic Economic Order Quantity Model (EOQ). This model then assumed use Monte Carlo simulation, so that obtained the total of optimal supply cost in the future. Based on data processing, the result of probabilistic EOQ is $486128,19. After simulation using Monte Carlo simulation where the demand data follows normal distribution and it is obtained the total of supply cost is $46116,05 in 23 months later. Whereas the demand data uses Weibull distribution is obtained the total of supply stock is $482301,76. So that, Monte Carlo simulation can calculate the total of optimal supply in the future based on historical demand data.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jormtt

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics

Description

JoRMTT is an international blind peer-review journal dedicated to interchange for the results of research in mathematical sciences and related fields. The journal publishes papers in fundamental theory, experiments and simulation, as well as applications, with a systematic proposed method, ...