Time series analysis of electric energy consumption using autoregressive integrated moving average model and Holt Winters model

Nahid Ferdous Aurna (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Md. Tanjil Mostafa Rubel (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Tanveer Ahmed Siddiqui (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Tajbia Karim (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Sabrina Saika (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Md. Murshedul Arifeen (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
Tasmima Noushiba Mahbub (Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP))
S. M. Salim Reza (Bangladesh University of Professionals)
Habibul Kabir (Islamic University of Technology (IUT))

TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)
Vol 19, No 3: June 2021

With the increasing demand of energy, the energy production is not that much sufficient and that’s why it has become an important issue to make accurate prediction of energy consumption for efficient management of energy. Hence appropriate demand side forecasting has a great economical worth. Objective of our paper is to render representations of a suitable time series forecasting model using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters model for the energy consumption of Ohio/Kentucky and also predict the accuracy considering different periods (daily, weekly, monthly). We apply these two models and observe that Holt Winters model outperforms ARIMA model in each (daily, weekly and monthly observations) of the cases. We also make a comparison among few other existing analyses of time series forecasting and find out that the mean absolute percentage error (MASE) of Holt Winters model is least considering the monthly data.