A Nonlinear Observer to Estimate the Effective Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases

Agus Hasan (Department of ICT and Natural Sciences Norwegian University of Science and Technology 6009 Alesund, Norway)

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)

In this paper, we design a Nonlinear Observer (NLO) to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) of infectious diseases. The NLO is designed from a discrete-time augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. The observer gain is obtained by solving a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The method is used to estimate Rt in Jakarta using epidemiological data during COVID-19 pandemic. If the observer gain is tuned properly, this approach produces similar result compared to existing approach such as Extended Kalman filter (EKF).