ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications
Vol. 11 No. 2 (2020): ComTech

Forecasting and Mapping Coffee Borer Beetle Attacks Using GSTAR-SUR Kriging and GSTARX-SUR Kriging Models

Henny Pramoedyo (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Brawijaya University)
Arif Ashari (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Brawijaya University)
Alfi Fadliana (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
16 Dec 2020

Abstract

The research aimed to use Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) and GSTARX modeling with the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach and combine them with the Kriging interpolation technique in an unobserved location. The case study was coffee borer beetle forecasting in Probolinggo Regency, East Java, Indonesia, with Watupanjang Village as the unobserved location. The results show that GSTAR-SUR Kriging and GSTARX-SUR Kriging models can predict coffee borer beetle attacks in unobserved areas with high accuracy. It is indicated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of less than 10%. The addition of exogenous variables (rainfall) into the model is proven to improve the accuracy of the model. The Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) value of the GSTARX-SUR Kriging model is smaller than the GSTAR-SUR Kriging model. The structure of the model produced from the research, GSTARX-SUR (1,[1,12])(10,0,0), can be used as a reference in modeling coffee borer beetle attacks in other regencies. Map of forecasting coffee borer beetle attack shows that the spread of coffee borer beetle attack is spatial clustering with the attack center located in the eastern region of Probolinggo Regency.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

comtech

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Engineering Mathematics

Description

The journal invites professionals in the world of education, research, and entrepreneurship to participate in disseminating ideas, concepts, new theories, or science development in the field of Information Systems, Architecture, Civil Engineering, Computer Engineering, Industrial Engineering, Food ...