IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI)
Vol 10, No 1: March 2021

Prediction of the effects of environmental factors towards COVID-19 outbreak using AI-based models

Khalid Mahmoud (Near East University)
Hatice Bebiş (Near East University)
A. G. Usman (Near East University)
A. N. Salihu (Near East University)
M. S. Gaya (Kano University of Science and Technology)
Umar Farouk Dalhat (Murtala Muhammad Hospital Kano)
R. A. Abdulkadir (Kano University of Science and Technology)
M. B. Jibril (Kano University of Science and Technology)
S. I. Abba (Maitama Sule University Kano)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Mar 2021

Abstract

The need for elucidating the effects of environmental factors in the determination of the novel corona virus (COVID-19) is very vital. This study is a methodological study to compare three different test models (1. Artificial neural networks (ANN), 2. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), 3. A linear classical model (MLR)) used to determine the relationship between COVID-19 spread and environmental factors (temperature, humidity and wind). These data were obtained from the studies (Pirouz, Haghshenas, Haghshenas, & Piro, 2020) with confirmed COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China, using temperature, humidity and wind as the independent variables. The measured and the predicted results were checked based on three different performance indices; Root mean square error (RMSE), determination coefficient (R2) and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that ANFIS and ANN are more promising over the classical MLR models having an average R-values of 0.90 in both calibration and verification stages. The findings indicated that ANFIS outperformed MLR and ANN. In addition, their performance skills boosted up to 25% and 9% respectively based on the determination coefficient for the prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan city of China. Overall, the results depict the reliability and ability of AI-based models (ANFIS and ANN) for the simulation of COVID-19 using the effects of various environmental variables. 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJAI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Engineering

Description

IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) publishes articles in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The scope covers all artificial intelligence area and its application in the following topics: neural networks; fuzzy logic; simulated biological evolution algorithms (like ...