World Oil Price Changes and Inflation in Indonesia: A Nonparametric Regression Approach

Indra Darmawan (STIE Indonesia Banking School)
Hermanto Siregar (Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia)
Dedi Budiman Hakim
Adler Haymans Manurung (School of Business, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia)

Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Vol 10, No 1 (2021)

This study aims to investigate the effect of world oil price changes on inflation in Indonesia. We used a nonparametric regression approach that never been employed in previous studies, both domestically and internationally. This study shows that the second-order Epanechnikov kernel function is statistically significant in explaining the effect of world oil price changes on Indonesia's inflation. We found that the world oil price changes had a lower effect on Indonesia's inflation when its price below USD 100 per barrel, and its effect became higher when its price above USD 100 per barrel. These results have important implications for Bank Indonesia and Indonesia's government in response to the world oil price changes. The policies that aimed at reducing the effect of world oil price changes on inflation in Indonesia should consider the world oil price level.JEL Classification: A12, B26, C14, E31, F29, F62How to Cite:Darmawan, I., Siregar, H., Hakim, D.B., & Manurung, A.H.. (2021). World Oil Price Changes and Inflation in Indonesia: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 161-176. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.19010.