Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor
Vol 9 No 4 (2018)

A FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO FORECAST FISH FARMING PRODUCT

Bagus Dwi Saputra (Universitas Diponegoro)
Rachmat Gernowo (Department of Physics, Diponegoro University, Semarang)
Budi Warsito (Department of Statistics, Diponegoro University, Semarang)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 Dec 2018

Abstract

Price is one of the important things that need to concern as defining factor of the profit or loss of product selling as the result of price fluctuations that are very difficult to control. Price fluctuations are caused by many factors including weather, stock availability, demand and others. One of the steps to solve the price fluctuations problem is by making a forecast of fish incoming prices. The purpose of this study is to apply Markov chain’s fuzzy time series to forecast farming fish prices. Markov chain fuzzy time series is one of the prediction methods to predict time series data that has advantages in the implentation of historical data, flexible, and high level of data forecasting accuracy. This study used fish prices at November 2018. The results showed that markov chain fuzzy time series showed very accurate forecasting results with a mean error percentage of absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.4% so the accuracy of the Markov chain fuzzy time series method is 98, 6%.

Copyrights © 2018






Journal Info

Abbrev

kursor

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

Description

Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor is published in January 2005 and has been accreditated by the Directorate General of Higher Education in 2010, 2014, 2019, and until now. Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor seeks to publish original scholarly articles related (but are not limited) to: Computer Science. Computational ...