Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan
2021: Vol. 14, No. 2, Agustus 2021 (pp.243-431)

The Dynamics of Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Trade Balance in Indonesia

Nayaka Artha Wicesa (Department of Economics Universitas Brawijaya)
Yon Widiyono (Bank Indonesia)
David Kaluge (Universitas Brawijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Aug 2021

Abstract

Balance of trade has become an essential indicator for economic activities, particularly in countries adopting the open economy. During the last two decades, Indonesia has had trade surplus. The open economy has created dynamics in macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this research is to identify any dynamics between exchange rate, inflation, and balance of trade in Indonesia. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag, this study finds the dynamics between the said variables. In the short run, there are causalities between exchange rate and balance of trade, exchange rate and inflation, and balance of trade and inflation. In addition, J-Curve also occurred in Indonesia, where depreciation in exchange rate gradually improves the country’s balance of trade in the second and fourth quarters. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation, Balance of Trade, Autoregressive Distributed Lag JEL Classification: F1, F4, C1

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jekt

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan is an academic journal focused on publishing empirical research papers, with a particular emphasis on the use of quantitative analysis tools—such as econometrics, parametric and non-parametric statistics, descriptive statistics, input-output analysis, computable ...